Denver Broncos vs New Orleans Saints

New Orleans is decimated with injuries on both sides of the ball and it has lost four in a row in a season that is quickly deteriorating for the Saints, who are 0-5 ATS their past five Thursday games. They were embarrassed 51-27 by Tampa Bay on Sunday and rookie Spencer Rattler threw for 243 yards and a TD, but he was picked off twice and sacked five times. Now the Saints have to play on a short week against Denver, which has won three of four although the Broncos look to bounce back from a 23-16 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. The Broncos are 5-1 ATS their past six games following an ATS loss and the Saints are 4-9 ATS their past 13 home games. Denver QB Bo Nix is slowly improving and he finished 19 of 33 for 216 yards against the Chargers. Denver also has the coaching edge with Sean Payton against Dennis Allen, whose job is hanging by a thread. Take the Broncos.

Teams used to dread going to Denver to play in the high altitude, but not so much anymore as the Broncos are only 2-3 at home this season, and the Saints are 3-1 on the road. New Orleans has won seven in a row and have not lost a beat since Drew Brees went down with an injury. Taysom Hill rushed for two touchdowns and went 18 of 23 for 233 yards and no interceptions in his first NFL start at quarterback as the Saints cruised past Atlanta 24-9. Michael Thomas caught nine passes for 104 yards, and the Saints piled up 168 rushing yards. Sean Payton is doing another masterful coaching job after his team lost two in a row early in the season against Las Vegas and Green Bay. The Saints defense is #3 in the league in yards allowed and #2 in rushing defense. Denver did beat the Dolphins 20-13, and Drew Lock completed 18 of 30 for 270 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. New Orleans is hitting on all cylinders while Denver is scoring only 20.6 points per game. Play the Saints on the moneyline.

This should be an interesting game. The Denver Broncos have one of the best back seven in the NFL, while Drew brees has been passing with precision over the last several games, moving the Saints to 4-4. Brees has made a habit of carving up defenses, but there is an exception. He has struggled mightily in his career vs. the Denver Broncos. Brees owns a lifetime 1-6 record vs. Denver. The average points scored in those games is a woeful 16.6 per contest, with a passer rating of 73.6. The Saints have been touching 30 points with regularity, but when facing a team that allows fewer than 20 points per game, they have touched 30 just once, and have averaged just 21.8 ppg. Trevor Siemian's nine starts for Denver has seen the total score average just 44.7 ppg. I think New Orleans' big offensive outputs are driving the total here, so make the play on the UNDER.

The bad news for the New Orleans Saints is the fact that their defense has allowed 24 or more points in eight straight games going back to last year. The good news is that they have scored 24 or more points in 11 straight games and in 15 of their last 16. The Saints are now in playoffs mode (must win) after starting the season a dreadful 0-4. The defense is inexcusably bad, but like Green Bay last year who couldn't defend, they have an offense behind Drew Brees that is elite enough to win games. That offense has helped the Saints go 16 straight games without suffering a loss by more than 8 points. They have not been involved in any game over a season's worth of games where they were more than one possession on the short end. So getting points with this team that can score on anyone provides value. Peyton Manning was supposed to be the savior in Denver. While he has executed very well at times, the Broncos are still 3-3. What is bothersome is the fact that the Broncos, like New Orleans, can't seem to defend. All three of the Broncos’ losses have come to teams that score 28.5 points per game or more, and the Saints are racking-up 29.3 ppg. The Broncos are 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 after scoring 30+ in their previous game. Manning is no exemption as he is 0-2 ATS here in Denver in that situation. The Saints are now 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when following an ATS win. John Fox coached teams have always struggled as a home favorite. His teams are just 8-20 ATS as home chalk of 3.5 to 7 points. This is too many points. Take the Saints.