Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders

Washington punched its ticket to the playoffs in an overtime win over Atlanta. At home, they've played seven of their last 10. They've played their best football at home (7-2) but are 4-3 on the road. Washington had one blowout victory on the road in Arizona in September. They lost by 17 at Tampa Bay, won at Cincinnati and the Giants by 5, lost at Baltimore (30-23), lost at Philadelphia (26-18), and won at the Saints by one point as a 7.5-point favorite. The defense is 27th in the NFL in the red zone. The Cowboys end their season at home with a rivalry game and a chance to knock Washington down in the playoff ladder to the seventh seed. QB Cooper Rush has 10 TDs and three picks over the last six games. Dallas is on a 4-2 SU/ATS run, winning three of those as underdogs of +10.5, +2.5, and +4.5. Play Dallas. 

Dallas is playing out a lost season on a 0-5 SU/ATS run. QB Dak Prescott is done, and back quarterback Cooper Rush (2 TDs, 2 INTs) has led the offense to just 16 points in the last two games. He gets no help from a ground game that is 31st in the NFL in yards while averaging 3.8 yards per carry. The Cowboys have been dominated in the last two games, losing to Philadelphia (34-6) and Houston (34-10) - both at home. The defense is 27th in yards allowed and 31st in points given up (29.3 per game). Washington comes off a pair of losses to solid teams but they're still on an 8-4 SU, 8-3-1 ATS run. The offense is sixth in total yards, eighth on third down (42.96%), and fourth in points (28 per game) behind QB Jayden Daniels (10 TDs, 3 INTs). Look for a one-sided game by the home team against their longtime rival. Play Washington. 

The Dallas offense is third in the NFL in points (29.4 per game), sixth in total yards, and third on third down (47.73%). The Cowboys won't hold back offensively with an NFC East title on the line. Washington's defense has packed it in surrendering an average of 33.57 points during their seven-game skid. They're on a 6-3 run OVER the total. The defense is last in the NFL in yards and points allowed (30 per game). Dallas won the first meeting, 45-10, in a game that sailed OVER and this one shapes up as a contest with more offense than defense. Take Dallas/Washington OVER the total. 

Washington lost seven of nine with a defense that has allowed the fourth-most yards (372.8 per game). They come off a 31-19 loss at home to the Giants as a touchdown favorite and are getting outscored by 69 points, the fourth-worst differential in the NFC. Washington is 45-66 ATS after giving up 30+ points in the last contest. Dallas has a +127 point differential, tied for the best in the league with Baltimore. The Cowboys are fifth offensively in total yards behind QB Dak Prescott (19 TDs, 6 INTs), while the defense is second in yards given up, fifth in points allowed (17.5 per game), and second on third down (32.81%). Dallas is on a 31-16 spread run, including 23-11 ATS versus the NFC. The Cowboys have scored 82 points in just the last two games and are 4-0 at home this season winning by 20, 35, 23, and 32 points. Play Dallas.

Washington is out of postseason contention, but it would love to put a crimp in Dallas' playoff situation as the Cowboys can clinch the NFC East with a win coupled with a loss by the Eagles. The Cowboys can clinch the NFC No. 1 seed with a win and losses by both the Eagles and the 49ers although that is unlikely. Dallas did not look good in its Thursday night 27-13 victory over Tennessee, which was playing a third-string quarterback and resting several starters. The game was fairly close into the fourth quarter and the Cowboys totaled only 87 yards rushing on 32 carries and Dak Prescott threw two interceptions and the game stayed UNDER. Prescott appeared to have hyperextended his knee against the Titans and he is probable for this game. The Commanders are 6-2-1 UNDER their past nine games and the first meeting stayed UNDER by 5.5 points. Washington is 19-6-1 UNDER versus teams with winning records and 18-5 UNDER their past 23 home games. The home team has covered seven of the past 10 meetings and the Cowboys are 1-8 ATS their past nine January games. Play the Commanders and the UNDER.