Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders

The Dallas offense is third in the NFL in points (29.4 per game), sixth in total yards, and third on third down (47.73%). The Cowboys won't hold back offensively with an NFC East title on the line. Washington's defense has packed it in surrendering an average of 33.57 points during their seven-game skid. They're on a 6-3 run OVER the total. The defense is last in the NFL in yards and points allowed (30 per game). Dallas won the first meeting, 45-10, in a game that sailed OVER and this one shapes up as a contest with more offense than defense. Take Dallas/Washington OVER the total. 

Washington lost seven of nine with a defense that has allowed the fourth-most yards (372.8 per game). They come off a 31-19 loss at home to the Giants as a touchdown favorite and are getting outscored by 69 points, the fourth-worst differential in the NFC. Washington is 45-66 ATS after giving up 30+ points in the last contest. Dallas has a +127 point differential, tied for the best in the league with Baltimore. The Cowboys are fifth offensively in total yards behind QB Dak Prescott (19 TDs, 6 INTs), while the defense is second in yards given up, fifth in points allowed (17.5 per game), and second on third down (32.81%). Dallas is on a 31-16 spread run, including 23-11 ATS versus the NFC. The Cowboys have scored 82 points in just the last two games and are 4-0 at home this season winning by 20, 35, 23, and 32 points. Play Dallas.

Washington is out of postseason contention, but it would love to put a crimp in Dallas' playoff situation as the Cowboys can clinch the NFC East with a win coupled with a loss by the Eagles. The Cowboys can clinch the NFC No. 1 seed with a win and losses by both the Eagles and the 49ers although that is unlikely. Dallas did not look good in its Thursday night 27-13 victory over Tennessee, which was playing a third-string quarterback and resting several starters. The game was fairly close into the fourth quarter and the Cowboys totaled only 87 yards rushing on 32 carries and Dak Prescott threw two interceptions and the game stayed UNDER. Prescott appeared to have hyperextended his knee against the Titans and he is probable for this game. The Commanders are 6-2-1 UNDER their past nine games and the first meeting stayed UNDER by 5.5 points. Washington is 19-6-1 UNDER versus teams with winning records and 18-5 UNDER their past 23 home games. The home team has covered seven of the past 10 meetings and the Cowboys are 1-8 ATS their past nine January games. Play the Commanders and the UNDER.

Washington's offensive line is terrible averaging 86.7 yards rushing. It's a one-dimensional offense and QB Carson Wentz has been sacked 15 times in three games. At least the defense is ranked fifth on third down. Washington is 106-76 UNDER the total against winning teams, 14-6 UNDER after a loss, plus 19-7 UNDER scoring less than 15 points in their last contest. Dallas has been forced to go ball control after the injury to QB Dak Prescott (broken thumb) with backup QB Cooper Rush running the show. The offense is #23 in total yards scoring the third-fewest points (15.3 ppg). The defense is Top 10 in yards allowed and points surrendered (17.3 ppg), plus #12 on third down. And a struggling NFL team like Washington with a winning percentage between 25% to 40% off a division loss by 10+ points is 36-9 UNDER the total against winning teams. Take Washington/Dallas UNDER the total.