Dallas Cowboys vs New Orleans Saints

New Orleans is a good-sized underdog despite having a talented, veteran defense. Last year, the Saints were 10th against the pass, eighth in points surrendered, and fourth on third down. They're second in total defense after crushing Carolina in the opener, 47-10. QB Derek Carr was sharp and the offense scored 30 first-half points in Klint Kubiak's play-calling debut. The Saints are on a 5-1 ATS run. Dallas plays its home opener after a 33-17 victory at Cleveland. Despite the 33 points, the offense had just 265 total yards and was 4-of-14 on third down. Brandon Aubrey kicked field goals of 57, 50, 46 and 40 yards. Play New Orleans.

Unbeaten Dallas has had an easy schedule, knocking off the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins. This is only their second road game and they've lost six of their last nine road contests. The Cowboys are 6-14 ATS against winning teams, including 3-7-1 ATS on the road versus teams with a winning home record. This is their first tough test of the season against a New Orleans squad that has a winning record against a much tougher schedule, including wins over the Texans and at Seattle. The Saints are 25-8 ATS at home against a team with a winning road record, 21-8 ATS following a spread cover, and 19-8 ATS after allowing 350+ total yards in their previous game. The underdog is 10-2 ATS when these NFC rivals clash and Dallas is 1-5 ATS in this building, making this a great spot for the home dog. Back New Orleans.

The New Orleans Saints have been toasty hot and after a season-opening loss have now won 10 straight, and covered the last nine of those. They head to Dallas in a rare matchup between teams playing on Thursday with both being off a Thursday game. Dallas was left for dead after losing to Washington and Tennessee in consecutive weeks but have gotten their act together and have won three straight covering, all three. This is a huge game for Dallas as they are in the mix of teams trying to win the NFC East. I think Dallas is going to play well here, but will it be enough against this juggernaut? New Orleans has gone for 37.2 points per game with that only increasing of late. Dalla's is averaging just 21.3 per game so keeping it close here is going to be a challenge. Dating back to last season, the Sants are 11-3 ATS vs. winning teams. Under Sean Payton, they are 50-27 ATS in that sutation and 59-43 ATS after a win. Meanwhile, under Jason Garrett, the COwboys are just 26-40 ATS at home and 5-13 ATS at home off a home gaem. Take the Saints.

This game would normally be hyped as Drew Brees vs. Tony Romo, but Tony Romo is out, and Drew Brees hopes to play, but will likely be less than 100% after sitting out last week. Dallas will have to go to Brandon Weeden once again. He has lost each of his last nine starts, and owns more INTs than TD passes over his career. Dallas is missing Romo as tehy own the worst yards at catch in the NFL at 4.2. Dallas receivers have caught passes for 25 yards or more just three times. The Saints aren't much better either, with just seven. The day of the Saints offense hanging a 30 almost like clockwork are over, and in their last five games they have not even reached 24. Once a cinch for 30 points at home, the Saints last three here have resulted in just 14.3 points per game. Needless to say, these are a pair of teams with the big offensive reputation, but are no longer the same threat. The Saints are now 13-6 to the UNDER when following a game where they gained fewer than 90 yards on the ground. Back the UNDER in this one.