Cincinnati Bengals vs Philadelphia Eagles

The Cincinnati Bengals have a long way to go at 3-4 on the season despite two straight wins. They will host the Philadelphia Eagles, who enter the game at 4-2. The Eagles have some question marks on the defensive side of the ball. The Eagles have played some poor offensive teams in the Giants, Saints, Browns, and Falcons and allowed just 13.3ppg to those four teams. They have faced two strong offensive teams in Green Bay and Tampa Bay, allowing an average of 31ppg. The Bengals have put up 33+ points in three of their last five games, representing the type of offense that can break through on the Philadelphia defense.  The Bengals are surrendering nearly 24ppg on the season, and I see a lot of potential offense here. Make the play on the OVER.

Philadelphia QB Carson Wentz made a big, surprising splash when he started the season. The Eagles were 3-0 and he was clicking, and so was the defense. The offense scored 29, 29, and 34 points in the first three games, and Wentz looked like a sure rookie of the year candidate. Things came to a screeching halt after Week 3. The offense that produced no less than 29 points in the first three hasn't gotten above 24 since. A defense that allowed a grand total of 27 points in the first three has allowed 24 or more in six of their last eight. It is clear to see why the Eagle has landed, and just 2-6 in their last eight. Cincinnati, at 3-7-1, never really got started to begin with, and their string of five straight playoff appearances is going to end. Cincinnati, however, is a lot closer to getting things turned around than Philadelphia. Yes, the Bengals have lost three straight, but by a total of 10 points. This is just what the doctor ordered for the Bengals, getting a team that has lost its way at home. Make the play on Cincinnati.

The Cincinnati Bengals saw their four-game winning streak come to an end last week when they allowed 10 points in the last few minutes at home to suffer a disappointing 1-point loss to the Cowboys. That game could have gone either way and if Cincy wins that, they'd be on a five-game winning streak and closer to a touchdown favorite here. This team is very much in the playoffs hunt whereas Philly's season is over. The Bengals have really turned the corner on defense. They have allowed 5.4 yards per play on the season, but over their last five games they have been a brick wall, allowing just 4.6 yards per play. They have held their last five opponents to 12.4 points per game. That's spells trouble for an Eagles offense that has averaged just 18.5 points per game. Philadelphia finally put one in the win column last week, snapping a disastrous eight game losing streak. But let's remember, this is a team that is going nowhere, and could be in for a letdown after finally getting the monkey off their back. The Bengals’ stop-unit has been superb, as no team has scored more than 20 points against them in their last five games. The same can't be said about the Eagles. Philadelphia has allowed eight straight teams to score 20 points or more against them. The Bengals are 7-1 straight-up in the Andy Dalton era vs. bad passing defenses like Philly's (teams allowing 7+ passing yards per attempt). Meanwhile, the Eagles are 1-6 this season vs. teams that can pass well (61%+ completion rate). And, under Marvin Lewis, the Bengals are 38-16 (70%) straight-up vs. bad teams (teams under .400). December home dogs are usually competitive, but the numbers simply don't add up to a straight-up win here as the difference in these two teams' talent is too large. Play Cincinnati on the moneyline.

As much as this looks like a game the Eagles could no-show, their are 10 teams in the NFC right now with an equal or better record. There is no playing with this game because an unexpected loss, and the Eagles are probably done. They are arguably the best 5-4 team in the league right now and certainly capable of a double-digit win in this one. Injuries to key players and a few bad breaks hurt them early. Those players have now gotten healthy and will make this team even better. The Eagles have the 9th rated defense in the league, have recorded 28 sacks, and will certainly be coming at Fitzpatrick with all kinds of blitz packages. Fitz's four TD's to six INT's shows a pick-6 here is not out of the question. Donovan McNabb is having a big year and with Kevin Curtis back at WR, and a healthy Brian Westbrook, this offense is one of the toughest to stop. Cincinnati's pass rush has mustered just nine sacks all season. McNabb will have all the time he needs to pick apart a suspect secondary. This one has "UGLY" potential with a very good, underrated Eagles team needing a big win. The Eagles are 20-14 ATS as a road favorite under Andy Reid. I'll lay the points here as a see a monster blowout.