Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs

Cincinnati was embarrassed in losing 16-10 at home as a 7.5-point favorite against New Engeland, which is expected to be one of the worst teams in the league. Joe Burrow was 21 of 29 for 164 yards, but with no TD passes. The Bengals appeared to be looking ahead to this week's matchup against the Chiefs, who have beaten the Bengals the past two meetings after Cincinnati had won and covered the previous three times they met. The good news for the Bengals is Ja'Marr Chase played and had six catches for 62 yards after there was a question of whether he would show up due to a contact dispute. Also, Zack Moss, who was acquired to replace Joe Mixon, rushed nine times for 44 yards. The Bengals have gone OVER seven of their past 10 games and Kansas City went OVER in its 27-20 victory over Baltimore in the season opener. Cincinnati has gone OVER five of its past six road games and looks to redeem itself after last week's upset loss. Take the Bengals and the OVER.

There's not a lot of good news for the Cincinnati offense. QB Joe Burrow (wrist) is done for the season and star WR Ja'Marr Chase (shoulder) is questionable to play. Hot and cold backup QB Jake Browning has 8 TDs and 6 interceptions and gets no help from a rushing attack that is the worst in the NFL with 82.7 yards per game. Cincinnati is 17-6 UNDER the total as an underdog, 63-37 UNDER on the road against winning teams, and 30-16 UNDER on the road after a loss by 14 or more points. Kansas City's offense has averaged 23.1 points over the last eight games. The defense has kept them in games, second in the NFL in yards and points allowed, plus sixth on third down (35.98%). The Chiefs are on a 14-3 run UNDER the total at home. Back Cincinnati/Kansas City UNDER the total. 

Patrick Mahomes has a high ankle sprain, but even if he were totally healthy his Kansas City team would have difficulty dealing with the Bengals, who overcame a slow start (probably due to a Super Bowl hangover) and have since won 10 in a row with an 8-1-1 ATS record. Besides, the Bengals went 10-1 ATS vs. teams averaging more than 260 passing yards and 6-0 ATS vs. elite passing offenses who complete higher than 65% of their passes. Joe Burrow went on the road, dominated the Bills and completed his first nine passes for 105 yards, and finished 23 of 36 for 242 yards in snowy conditions. Cincinnati has won and covered the past three meetings, including last year's thrilling 27-24 overtime road victory that sent the Bengals to the Super Bowl, so they won't be intimidated playing at Arrowhead Stadium. Cincinnati is 13-2-1 ATS its past 16 games vs. teams with winning records and 37-17 ATS in their past 54 road games. Also, the Bengals are 19-6-1 vs. the AFC and 6-1-1 ATS overall in January. The Chiefs have been a notorious money-burner with a 2-8-1 ATS record in their past 11 games and 1-8-1 ATS at home. Part of the problem is a middling D that allows 21.6 PPG (T-15th), and Burrow tears up average defenses. Also, Kansas City is 9-24 ATS against the AFC (2-11 ATS this season), and they have not covered their last five against teams with winning records. The Bengals are 7-1-1 OVER after winning by more than two touchdowns in their previous game and the Chiefs are 10-4 OVER in their past 14 January games. This is a lower posted total than when the teams met on Dec. 4 and Cincinnati won 27-24, but I'll note that Cinci is a perfect 13-0 ATS with totals greater than 45 since late last season. The Bengals have averaged 28.3 points in their past 10 games and HC Zach Taylor is 25-11 ATS on the road, going 33-19 ATS vs. the AFC. Andy Reid, thrust into the underdog role as bettors contemplate the impact of Mahomes' injury, also qualifies for a 23-13 OVER angle when getting points. Take the Bengals and the OVER.

It will be hard to top last week's heroics after Kansas City battled back several times and finally beat the Bills, 42-36, in overtime with Pat Mahomes finishing 33 of 44 for 378 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. That last stat is important as Joe Burrow was sacked nine times in Cincinnati's 19-16 victory over the Titans, but the offense was helped out by the Bengals defense, which intercepted Ryan Tannehill three times and held him to 15 of 24 for 220 yards, and the Bengals won't be that lucky against Mahomes. The Bengals were outgained 353-345 overall and 140-65 on the ground. The Chiefs have turned things around after a slow start and are 8-2 ATS their past 10 games and get to avenge a 34-31 loss to the Bengals on Jan. 2 when Burrow threw for 446 yards and four TDs. Obviously, the Chiefs will make some adjustments defending Burrow after seeing him burn them in the last meeting. The Chiefs offense has been spectacular, averaging 31 points per game. Their defense has been a tale of three seasons. In their first five games, this team was last in the NFL giving up 32.6 points per game. Over the next ten games, they cut that to a league-best 11.9 per game. And, over their last four they have regressed somewhat to 28.8 per game. This defense is better than the start of the season, but will allow some points to the Bengals. Kansas City has gone OVER seven games in a row while averaging 37.3 points in that span. They are also 6-2 OVER in their last eight home playoff games and 7-0 OVER in their last seven overall versus AFC teams. Dating back to last season, the Chiefs are 16-7 to the OVER when facing good QBs that copmplete 64%+ of their passes. Kansas City is 6-1 ATS in its past seven at home in the playoffs and under Andy Reid thy are 61-46 ATS following a win. Play the Chiefs and the OVER.