Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers

The Chicago Bears are not high on many lists regarding 2022 expectations. The Bears did not show much in terms of a home-field advantage last season finishing their home schedule at just 3-5. That gives a look to this game as a San Francisco easy win, but despite the 3-5 overall home record a year ago the Bears were out-scored at home by just 0.5ppg. That tells me this game will be a lot more competitive than it looks, and laying a TD on the road in week 1 is not a desirable position to be backing. Week 1 home dogs of 7 or more have covered 58.3% of all games. San Francisco went the last 6 games a year ago without scoring more than 27 points in any of them. The defense had to step up and win games. This was a team that went 8-4 on the road last year however 6 of those wins were by 1 score, and 5 were by 6 or fewer points. The Bears are getting no love but the line here is inflated for a week one road favorite. Make the play on Chicago.

This is about as low of an NFL total as you'll find without a blizzard roaring through. It's forecasted to be 55 degrees and sunny in Chicago on Sunday. San Francisco has lost four in a row with defensive problems. They're surrendering an average of 26.25 points during the skid. The 49ers have dropped to #20 in the NFL in points allowed and are 21-11 OVER the total as a favorite. Chicago's defense has also had problems giving up 24 and 38 points the last two games. They had four players on the COVID list for last week's game, including LB Caleb Johnson and star linebacker Robert Quinn. The Bears are #14 in points surrendered and #18 on third down. Also, the 49ers are 36-20 OVER the total against offenses that average 285 or fewer total yards per contest. Play this one to go OVER the total.

The Chicago Bears just clinched the NFC North with a home win over the rival Packers, 24-17. There was plenty of celebrating as they haven't been to the playoffs since 2010. After clinching the title, now they fly to the West Coast. Chicago has injuries in the secondary, losing key slot corner Bryce Callahan (broken foot) and they are without Eddie Jackson (ankle injury). Chicago is a .500 team on the road, losing as a three-point favorite at the Giants, 30-27, squeezing by at Arizona (16-14) as -5.5 chalk, and losing at Miami as a TD-favorite, 31-28. NFL road teams that have covered five of six of the last seven games and have won 60% to 75% of their games are 45-82 ATS when facing a team with a losing record. San Francisco has a winning home record and is playing well, beating the Broncos (20-14) and Seahawks (26-23) the last two games. They were an underdog each time and this is their third straight home game. QB Nick Mullens (1,754 yards, 10 TDs, 6 picks) has been sharp along with star TE George Kittle (1,154 yards). Chicago is 23-42 ATS against teams averaging six yards per play or more, making this is a great situational spot for the home dog. Take San Francisco.

The weather is getting colder and a pair of bad offenses meet. San Francisco is #21 in total yards on offense, and #28 in points scored. But the 49ers are playing hard for this first-year coaching staff and scored a 31-21 win over the Giants two weeks ago as a dog. The offense gets a boost this week as QB Jimmy Garoppolo will make his first start since being acquired from the Patriots. Jimmy G has plenty to play for as he is set to hit free agency after the season. The 49ers have had a difficult schedule but have close losses at Seattle (12-9), at Arizona (18-15) and at the Colts (26-23). They are 10-2 UNDER the total after a double-digit loss at home. After playing a string of talented teams, San Francisco steps way down in class to face the blundering Bears, losers of four in a row by 8, 8, 3 and 28 points. They were favored at home to the Packers and lost 23-16, meaning they're 0-6 ATS the last six times as chalk. Chicago is #29 in total yards on offense and points scored (17 points per game). The coaching staff is probably on the way out, as the team looks ill prepared too often with too many penalties and mental mistakes. The Bears got crushed last week, 31-3, and are 31-13 UNDER the total off a road blowout loss by 14+ points. With San Francisco 26-13 ATS away when playing against teams with winning percentages between 25-40%, back the dog in a low scoring tilt. Play San Francisco and the UNDER.