Chicago Bears vs Indianapolis Colts

The Colts opened the season with a good offensive showing vs. the Texans, where they scored 27 points, but unfortunately, the defense did not play as well as the Texans put up 29. Last week in Green Bay, they faced a Green Bay team that started a backup quarterback, but the Colts had no answer for the Packers' ground game, which allowed over 250 rushing yards. Turnovers tormented the Colts offense last week, and they held themselves to 10 total points. Chicago had a disappointing debut for Celeb Williams, scoring just 13 points vs. the Texans, but Williams was much better than his debut game as he led the Bears to a 24-17 win over the Titans. The Bears offense has a chance to grow every week behind Williams and some very good pass-catchers, and I like this one to go OVER the total.

Chicago rallied from a 16-point deficit and beat the hapless Falcons 30-26 on Sunday as Nick Foles had a reprise of his 2017 season when he took over for the injured starter and eventually won a Super Bowl with the Eagles. Foles relieved Mitchell Trubisky and threw three touchdown passes in the fourth quarter for the Bears, who are 3-0 for the first time in seven years. Foles will get the start this week against Indianapolis, which comes off a 36-7 shellacking of the Jets. Philip Rivers was 17 of 21 for 217 yards, and the Colts enjoyed two pick-sixes. The Colts defense is #1 in the NFL in yards allowed, but their three opponents have a combined record of 1-8. The Bears' defense has been solid later in the game, giving the offense the chance to come back as what also happened against Detroit in the season opener. Indianapolis is 0-5 ATS the last five seasons in Week 4 and it's 2-6 ATS its last eight games as a road favorite. Also, the Colts are 5-12-1 ATS their last 18 games after scoring at least 30 points in their previous game. Chicago is 11-3-1 ATS as a home underdog, and it has renewed momentum not only due to winning its third in a row, but now with a Super Bowl-winning QB at the helm. The Colts lost their only road game this season, 27-20, to Jacksonville. Play the Bears.

Bears head coach Matt Nagy as become the latest coach to realize the risk of injuries far exceeds the value in preseason. The Bears starters are not expected to play Saturday versus the Colts. They've scored 13 points in each of the first two games. QBs Chase Daniel and Tyler Bray have been awful (no TDs, eight sacks) with the offense a combined 8-of-26 on third down. The same thing is true for the Colts, as coach Frank Reich said most of the starters won't play Saturday. It's easier for the Colts not to play their starters because most were in Reich's system last season. QB Andrew Luck is still out and the offense has scored 16 and 18 points in two games. Look for more punts and field goals in this low-scoring snorer. Play the UNDER.

The Indianapolis Colts and the Chicago Bears are both a mess, and come into this game with identical 1-3 records. It may already be too late for either to salvage this season, but the winner has a fighting chance. Since last Thanksgiving, the Colts own all of three wins. That was against Miami, Tennessee, and San Diego. They have allowed 30 points or more five times in their last nine games, while also scoring 20 or fewer five times, and that is a very wide gap. The Bears got a much needed win last week vs. Detroit, and with Jacksonville on deck, they think they can run the table to get back to 3-3, to get something going. The Bears have actually played above average from the line of scrimmage on defense, while the Colts have been just average, and Indianapolis has a defense that is considerably below average from the line of scrimmage. Indianapolis has played three very winnable games vs. Detroit, San Diego, and Jacksonville, and are 1-2 in those games, and the win was by four points. I think Chicago is a better team from the line of scrimmage than all of those teams, Indianapolis included. Make the play on Chicago.