Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans

The Chicago Bears were excited as they finally had their QB in Caleb Williams. Looking at his first game, he left a lot of question marks behind. Williams completed 14 of 29 passes for just 93 yards. The Bears running game wasn't much either, as they went for 84 yards on 22 attempts. Overall, the offense generated 177 total yards. The Bears were down 17-0 in the 3rd and finally got on the board with a FG. Then they blocked a punt and returned it for a TD. Then, with 7:35 to go in the game, they scored on a pick-6. I think the Bears needed a game to get a new QB some actual game action. The lucky in, wasn't all luck, the Bears are strong defensively, and should have an easier time this week moving the ball and staying in this game. Make the play on Chicago.

Houston is not only playing hard for coach Lovie Smith (2-0 ATS), they're playing good defense, which is his specialty. The Texans are #11 in the NFL allowing 18 points per game, plus tied for eighth in third-down defense (33.3%). Houston is 11-5 ATS after scoring fewer than 15 points in their last game. They're an underdog to a Chicago squad off a 27-10 loss to Green Bay. Chicago is #26 in third-down defense, #25 in yards per carry allowed (5.1), and dead last against the run surrendering 189.5 yards rushing per contest. On offense, young QB Justin Fields (2 TDs, 2 INTs) threw only 11 passes last week, the fourth time he has attempted fewer than 20 passes in a start. And the Bears are 26-44 ATS after allowing 6.5+ yards per play in the last game. Play Houston.

The Chicago Bears had a moment in the NFL draft that could have complemented the strong defense the team has had. They had a choice of Watson, Mahomes, or Trubisky, and that decision has set this franchise back as the offense has been one of the worst in the NFL. While the Houston offense has moved the ball rather well it just hasn't translated to a lot of points, outside of their 41-point outburst vs. the hapless defense of the Detroit Lions. Meanwhile, after allowing 77 points in back-to-back games vs. Tennessee and Green Bay, the Houston offense has improved considerably and has allowed just 21.2 points per game over its last five contests. I think the total has accounted for most of that, but the Bears are too one-sided of a team to keep up, and last week vs. the Lions they were burned for 400 yards in the air and 34 points. I get a sense that the Bears, after opening the season 5-1 and then losing six straight, are packing it in. Make the play on Houston.

John Fox begins his second year as coach of Chicago, and Dowell Loggains, former quarterbacks coach, replaces Adam Gase as offensive coordinator.  Jay Cutler actually had a decent season in 2015 as he threw 11 interceptions, which are the fewest in any of his full seasons, and 21 touchdowns. He also recorded his highest passer rating (92.3), and he had three games of 300+ yards. Matt Forte was lost to free agency, so the Bears will rely on inexperienced running backs Jeremy Langford, Ka'Deem Carey, and Jordan Howard. Defensively, the Bears ranked 14th in yards allowed and fourth in passing yards allowed. The defensive line will be stronger this year with the addition of draft pick Jonathan Bullard and free agent Akiem Hicks. Chicago covered the spread six of its last seven road games last season. Houston ranked third in the league in total yards allowed, and the defense will be formidable again, led by J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus. Brock Osweiler will make his first regular season start with the Texans, who ranked 19th in total yards per game in 2015 and 21st in points scored with 21.2 per game. The offensive line was a problem last year and still is a question mark this year as injuries already have taken a toll with rookie Nick Martin out due to ankle surgery, and tackles Duane Brown and Derek Newton also are out. It will take awhile before Osweiler can feel confident with his new and ever-changing offensive linemen. The Texans went UNDER their last four home games and four of their last five overall, including a 30-0 loss to Kansas City in the playoffs. Play the Bears and the UNDER.