Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Buffalo was lucky to escape with a 34-28 win over Arizona in Week 1 after the Cardinals blew a 14-point lead. Miami is in a huge revenge spot after losing both meetings last season, and the Dolphins are 9-0-2 ATS as division home favorites of fewer than five points. Jason Sanders kicked a 52-yard field goal as time expired last week, and Miami rallied past Jacksonville 20-17 to earn its first win of the season. Tyreek Hill started the comeback with an 80-yard touchdown catch and finished with seven catches for 130 yards, hours after being detained by police for a traffic violation. The Jaguars were outgained 400-267 and Trevor Lawrence threw for 162 yards for the Dolphins. Miami is 8-2 ATS its past 10 games versus AFC East teams and the Bills are 5-11 ATS overall their past 16 games. The Dolphins have won nine of their past 11 home games and they are 12-5 UNDER their past 17 September games and they have stayed UNDER five of their past six games overall. Buffalo is 12-4 UNDER on the road. Take the Dolphins and the UNDER. 

Miami keeps getting beaten and sometimes destroyed by the better teams in the league and the Dolphins have plenty to be worried about after being humiliated 56-19 at Baltimore on Sunday. The Dolphins were no match for Lamar Jackson, who threw five TD passes and finished with a perfect 158.3 passer rating. Now they're up against Josh Allen, who torched them in the first meeting throwing for 320 yards on 21 of 25 passing and four TDs as the Bills won 48-20 on Oct. 1. Buffalo has won nine of the past 10 meetings and they are peaking at the right time with four consecutive wins following a 27-21 victory over New England last week. Allen ran for two TDs and the Bills picked off Bailey Zappe three times. Buffalo will clinch the AFC East title with a win and a playoff berth with a tie OR a Pittsburgh loss or tie OR a Jacksonville loss or tie OR a Houston-Indianapolis tie. Miami will clinch the AFC East with a win or tie and it already has earned a playoff spot. Buffalo has gone OVER its past two games and, of course, Miami soared OVER by 28 points against the Ravens. Miami is 7-3 OVER versus AFC East teams and Buffalo is 6-2 OVER in division games. Buffalo is 5-1-1 ATS versus teams with winning records. Take the Bills and the OVER.

Miami scored the most points in a game since 1966 and overwhelmed Denver 70-20 and now the Dolphins are underdogs on the road at Buffalo. Miami is 7-0 ATS its past seven games versus AFC opponents, 6-0 ATS its past six overall and 5-0 ATS on the road dating to last season. Tua Tagovailoa completed his first 17 pass attempts and the Dolphins scored touchdowns on eight of nine drives before they mercifully brought in backup QB Mike White. These teams met three times in 2022-23 and each game was decided by a field goal or less, including Buffalo's 34-31 playoff win with the Dolphins a 14-point underdog. Therefore revenge is an added factor in this matchup and Miami is 7-0 ATS after scoring at least 35 points. The Bills had no trouble with Washington as Josh Allen threw for 218 yards and a TD and ran for a score and the defense forced five turnovers. However, Buffalo always does well against rookie QBs and in this case it was Sam Howell, but Tagovailoa will be a different story. The Bills have gone UNDER five straight October games and they have seven consecutive UNDERS as favorites of 0.5-3.0 points. Miami is 18-8 UNDER as a road dog of 0.5-3.0 points and 22-8 UNDER after winning by more than 14 points. Take the Dolphins and the UNDER.

Good January football weather in Buffalo Sunday: 34 degrees with no wind. Miami won't have QB Tua Tagovailoa but there is no shortage of depth. QB Skylar Thompson (534 yards) is prepping this week, veteran QB Teddy Bridgewater (683 yards) may be available, and the team signed nine-year veteran Mike Glennon. Whoever is behind center will get help from RBs Raheem Mostert (86- yards, 4.9 ypc) and Jeff Wilson Jr. (392 yards, 4.7 ypc). The Dolphins' defense, however, ranks 18th in yards given up, 26th against the pass, 23rd in points (23.5 pg), 23rd in the red zone, and 24th on third down (41.63%). Buffalo's offense is loaded with weapons for QB Josh Allen (35 TDs, 14 INTs), ranked second in the NFL in total yards and points (28.4 pg). The Bills beat the Dolphins on this field four weeks ago, 32-29, with 446 total yards (150 rushing) going 8-of-14 on third down. This is the third straight year the Bills have hosted a Wild Card game after beating the Patriots, 47-17, and the Colts, 27-24. Buffalo is 75-47 OVER the total as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, plus 23-10 OVER after four or more straight victories. Take Miami/Buffalo OVER the total.