Baltimore Ravens vs Dallas Cowboys

After dominating the Cleveland Browns in an easy 33-17 season opener, the Cowboys were dominated last week by the New Orleans Saints 44-19. Dallas is likely to have many games this season putting up points, as the Cowboys went for 30 or more 11 times last year, including the playoffs. Baltimore has stumbled out of the gate at 0-2. The Ravens allowed 20 or fewer points in 11 of their last 13 games last season, but so far this year, the defense has been a handicap, allowing 27 to the Chiefs and an inexcusable 26 to the Raiders. Both these teams have talented QBs with what looks like vulnerable defenses this season, and a high-scoring game is going to be the result. Make the play OVER the total.

Dallas has split its last two games, including a 31-28 win at Minnesota as a +7 dog. The last two times they've been an underdog, they covered, including a 24-19 defeat to Pittsburgh as a +14 dog. The Cowboys are just one game out of first place in the NFC East. Dallas is 21-8 ATS on the road after a loss by 14+ points, as well as 12-3 ATS away after allowing 175+ rushing yards the last game. Baltimore has a losing record at home and is riding a 1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS run overall. QB Lamar Jackson might play, one of 10 players on the team's COVID-19 list after being sidelined since Thanksgiving. If Jackson isn't cleared, QB Trace McSorley will be forced to make his first NFL start with rookie QB Tyler Huntley as the backup. The Ravens are 8-19 ATS at home against defenses that surrender 375+ total yards per game, so back the big dog in a close one. Play Dallas.

The Baltimore defense has been impressive, tops in the NFL in yards allowed and tied for third in points allowed (17.8 points per game). The offense, though, has been poor at #25 in yards, #24 in points. QB Joe Flacco has the same number of TDs (nine) as interceptions. The Ravens are 9-3-1 UNDER the total on fieldturf, plus 35-17-3 UNDER after getting more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. The Dallas defense is for real at #12 in yards allowed, and eighth in points allowed (18.9 ppg). The Cowboys can chew up yards and the clock with their balanced attack behind their rookie QB, leading the NFL with 161 yards rushing per contest. Dallas is 11-3 UNDER after getting 250+ yards passing and the team has gone UNDER in four of its last six home contests. This one stays UNDER.