Atlanta Falcons vs Philadelphia Eagles

Atlanta and Kirk Cousins did not have a good game against the stout Pittsburgh defense while losing 18-10, but they look for a bounce back this week against a Philadelphia defense that allowed 414 yards against Green Bay. The Falcons defense did not allow a touchdown against the Steelers and Jalen Hurts will be without wide receiver A.J. Brown, who is out with a hamstring injury. Brown caught five passes for 119 yards, including a 67-yard TD in the season opener. Hurts completed 20 of 34 passes for 278 yards against the Packers, but with two interceptions. Saquan Barkley rushed for 109 yards and two TDs, but the Falcon run defense held the Steelers to 3.3 yards per carry and just 133 passing yards. The Eagles still have lost six of their past eight games outright with a 1-7 ATS mark. Philadelphia is 3-11-1 ATS in Week 2 games and the Eagles have covered the spread once their past five games against NFC opponents. Take the Falcons.

A pair of teams with new coaches in rebuilding mode square off here, but the Eagles are far better along. Philadelphia begins its second season with QB Jalen Hurts settled in as the starter. He has a talented target in rookie WR DeVonta Smith (Alabama), who is joining star TE Zach Ertz. All-Pro center Jason Kelce anchors an offensive line that is finally healthy after the 2020 Eagles were forced to use an NFL-record 14 different starting O-line combos in 16 games. Atlanta traded star WR Julio Jones as new head coach Arthur Smith has a lot of holes to fill. New defensive coordinator Dean Pees wants to blitz a lot, but that will be dangerous in Week 1 against a quarterback as mobile as Hurts. The Atlanta defense has been short on talent the last three years and still is. This unit ranked #28 in yards allowed, dead last against the pass (293.6 yards per game), and #15 in yards allowed per carry (4.4). Also, NFL favorites that had a losing record the previous season are 130-204 ATS in conference action. Play Philadelphia.

Philadelphia made a great comeback from a 17-0 deficit to defeat the Redskins 32-27 while Atlanta self-destructed by committing four turnovers that Minnesota turned into four touchdowns. The Falcons figure to be more disciplined this week. Matt Ryan still completed 33-of-46 for 304 yards and two touchdowns against the Vikings although he did throw two picks. Atlanta actually outgained the Vikings 345-269 and Minnesota had only 97 net passing yards. Obviously the score was deceptive and the Falcons are 4-0 ATS over the last four years in Week 2, and in fact, last year they lost on the road to Philadelphia in the opener and then bounced back to win and cover against Carolina the second week of the season. The Eagles are 0-4 ATS over their last four September games and 2-8 ATS in Week 2. The Falcons are 22-9 ATS their last 31 after scoring fewer than 15 points their previous game. Philly went OVER by 15 points last week and the Eagles are 13-3-1 OVER in Week 2 and 5-2 OVER in their last seven September games while Atlanta is 9-3 OVER in September. Play the Falcons and the OVER.

The NFL opens its season at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. The defending Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles will once again be without Carson Wentz, but Nick Foles showed he was an able bodied, and experienced QB, leading the Eagles through the playoffs to a Super Bowl victory. The Super Bowl this year is in Atlanta, and the Falcons will try to become the first team ever to play a Super Bowl on their home field, but that didn't help Minnesota last year. The Falcons offense suffered last season, replacing Kyle Shannahan with Steve Karsisian. The offense went from eighth best in the league to #15. The Eagles lost DE Vinny Curry and his 47 QB pressures from last season, but replaced him with Michael Bennett who finished 2017 with 70 QB pressures. LB Vinny Curry replaces Mychal Kendricks, which should also be an upgrade. Overall the stout Philly defense looks like they have a shot at being even better, especially at home celebrating their Super Bowl win. The Philly crowd should be as frenetic as ever, and Super Bowl winners have been potent in Game one. This Eagles team went 16-3 last season, winning by an average of 11 points per gaem (16 per gae at home). Over the past three seasons, Philly is a perfect 6-0 ATS in expected close games (line of -3 to +3). And, under Doug Pederson, this team is 13-5 ATS at home. Play on Philadelphia.

The Atlanta Falcons' quest to get back to the Super Bowl is alive. Atlanta and Matt Ryan had a huge offensive output year last season, and did not come close to duplicating that this year. That doesn't mean the potential is not there, or they are bad offensively, they actually are above average. In fact, of the eight teams remaining in the playoffs, the Atlanta offense generates 6.0 yards per play, good for third and just 0.1 below the 6.1 average of New England. Philadelphia lost Carson Wentz, and Nick Foles is certainly an able bodied replacement. Foles has appeared in 49 NFL games with his team scoring an above average 24.9 points per game. Many will look at the Eagles' zero points in their season finale as reason to suspect the Foles led Philadelphia offense, but a team entering their playoff game after scoring 14 or fewer are 27-14 to the OVER, topping the total by 5.56 points per contest. (6-1 if they scored three or fewer). Play the OVER the total.