Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings

Despite injuries and a difficult schedule, Minnesota is on a 4-1 SU/ATS run and they are 3-1 this season on the road. That included knocking off the mighty 49ers, 22-17, as a +7 dog and winning last week at rival Green Bay, 24-10. QB Jaren Hall stepped in for Kirk Cousins and finished the game last week and he gets the call again here. The Vikings' defense is 11th in the NFL in yards allowed and 15th in points given up. Atlanta is on a 3-4 SU, 1-6 ATS run after losing to Tennessee as a favorite, 28-23. They're 5-14 ATS after playing their last game on the road. Three quarterbacks have combined for seven TDs and six picks. With Desmond Ridder struggling, Taylor Heinicke gets the call and he's good, but not great (86.1 career QB rating). The Falcons are 26-43 ATS at home after having lost two of three, plus 63-89 ATS against teams averaging 350+ yards per game. Atlanta is also just 5-14 ATS in the Arthur Smith era following a road game. Play Minnesota. 

The Atlanta Falcons have had an ugly start to their season. They are 0-5 to start the season and have blown two huge leads in the 4th quarter, so about everything that can go wrong has. Minnesota has not fared much better as the Vikings enter at just 1-4 with the lone win against 1-4 Houston. This Minnesota team has a different look as over the last several years they have been very strong on the defensive side of the ball, but they are allowing a woeful 30.4 points per game on the season. The Falcons finally fired Quinn, and Raheem Morris will take over the team. Atlanta needed a change at the top, so look for them to play 60 minutes in this one vs. the Vikings. Winless teams of 0-4 or worse cover better than 55% of all games. Make the play on Atlanta.

Atlanta comes into the 2019 season with high hopes mostly due to a revamped offensive line after injuries decimated it last season. Also, the Falcons hope to have an improved secondary with Isaiah Oliver taking over a starting spot to go along with veteran Desmond Trufant. Matt Ryan begins his 13th season with hopes of being more protected this year after being sacked 42 times and he still completed 69.4 percent of his passes and threw for nearly 5,000 yards.  A major factor this year is that Devonta Freeman is back after missing all but two games and then having sports hernia surgery. The Falcons also hired Dirk Koetter as offensive coordinator to help with the running game, which obviously is important with Ryan's play-action fakes. Minnesota is depending on Kirk Cousins to rebound from a disappointing season and although his statistics were good, he faltered against the elite teams in the league. Dalvin Cook is one of the best running backs in the league, but hasn't shown that he can stay healthy. This is also the first meeting since 2017 between these two teams. Atlanta's improvements on both sides of the ball along with questions surrounding Cousins gives the edge to the road team in this matchup. Play the Falcons.

First-place Minnesota has another powerhouse defensive team, fifth in the NFL in yards allowed, second against the run and fifth in points surrendered (17.7 points per game). Minnesota is 8-3 against the spread this season, the second-best mark in the NFL. The Vikings are on a 39-15 ATS run, including 35-17 ATS against the NFC. Quarterback Case Keenum (14 TDs, five picks) has piloted an offense that's in the top 10 in both points scored (24.6 ppg) and total offense (375.7 yards per game). He's accounted for 10 TDs over the last four games. In his past three road starts, he has 874 yards passing, eight touchdowns and three interceptions for a 108 rating. Minnesota also brings its great defense against top teams at 19-7 UNDER the total versus opponents with a winning record. They match up well with an Atlanta defense that is #20 against the run. The Falcons are 3-7 ATS after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. The Vikings lead the series all-time, 17-10, and have won the last two -- with Mike Zimmer coaching both of those. The UNDER is on a 5-1 run when these teams clash, as well as 5-1 UNDER in this building, so grab the talented and balanced first-place dog in a defensive battle. Take Minnesota and the UNDER.