Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Chargers

Arizona's offense has been in disarray as Kyler Murray has missed the last two games with a hamstring injury although he says he can play this week. The Cardinals had only 67 yards rushing in their loss to San Francisco on Monday night and backup QB Colt McCoy threw for 218 yards with an interception. Los Angeles has averaged 21 points over its last five games and the Chargers come off a 30-27 loss to Kansas City although it was their best offensive performance since beating Cleveland on Oct. 9. Justin Herbert went 23 of 30 for 280 yards and two touchdowns, but it wasn't enough even with the return of receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. The Chiefs had 163 yards rushing and the Chargers are 22-7 UNDER their past 29 games after yielding at least 150 yards on the ground their previous game. Arizona is 12-5 UNDER after losing by at least 10 points at home and the Cardinals are 11-5 UNDER following a loss. Also, the last five times Arizona has played on Sunday after a Monday game it has gone UNDER four times. Take the UNDER as a Max Play.

Los Angeles finished 12-4 and could be just as good or better this season as the Chargers retained most of their free agents and they still have Philip Rivers behind center and Ken Whisenhunt as offensive coordinator along with offensive-minded head coach Anthony Lynn. Melvin Gordon is a holdout, but Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson have looked good in practice and the Chargers continue to have a solid offensive line. For the second year in a row, Arizona will break in a rookie quarterback and this time it's Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray. Brett Hundley is the backup and hasn't played since 2017 and the other QBs on the roster are Chad Kanoff and Drew Anderson and neither has played in the NFL. Backing up Rivers is Tyrod Taylor, who is with his fourth team and you'll remember he was the starter for the Buffalo Bills from 2015-17. Last year Taylor got into four games for the Cleveland Browns. Next in line is Cardale Jones, who played in one game in 2016 and none since and then rookie Easton Stick, a rookie out of North Dakota State. The Chargers went OVER in three of their four preseason games last year, including a 24-17 loss to the Cardinals and new Arizona coach Kliff Kingsbury was known for his high-flying offense at Texas Tech. No. 1 draft pick Murray notwithstanding, Arizona still has only one QB that has ever played a regular season game and L.A.'s running backs have something to prove. Play both the Chargers on the moneyline and the OVER.

Arizona is quietly on a 5-2-1 ATS run but is a huge dog here. The Cardinals have also covered four of five on the road against teams with winning home records. They've lost to the Bears and Seahawks by a combined five points, plus covered their only game as a double-digit dog, losing 26-14 at Kansas City as a +16-point puppy. NFL road teams that score between 14.5 and 18 points per game against an average defensive team allowing 18-23 ppg are 84-46 ATS after a loss by six or fewer points. This is a sandwich spot for the L.A. Chargers, facing a weak NFC team sandwiched around games against AFC teams, division rival Denver (23-22 loss last week) and at Pittsburgh next week. The Chargers are 4-9-1 ATS following a straight-up loss, plus 4-10 ATS after getting 350+ total yards in their previous game. And NFL favorites of 10.5+ that win 60-75% of their games are 43-79 ATS after covering the spread in two of their last three contests. Play Arizona.