Arizona Cardinals vs Detroit Lions

The Arizona Cardinals already look like a different team, with Kyler Murray fresh and healthy. The Cardinals offense has put up 28 points vs. Buffalo and 41 vs. the Rams and has covered both games. The Rams had given up 40+ points just once since 2019, and the Bills gave up 28 or more points just three times last season. The Cardinals offense looks really good, but the defense is lagging behind. Detroit scored 30+ points in eight games from Week 10 on, including the playoffs, but have failed to do so in their first two games this season. I think this is a great spot to see that happen, as the Cards have been opening things up, and the Lions will not shy away from a quick pace. Make the play OVER the total.

This is a high total, but the matchups are working against a high-scoring game. Arizona can run the football at will against a Detroit defense that is #27 against the run, and the Cardinals defense is one of the best in the league. They are fifth in yards allowed, fourth on third-down, and fourth in points allowed (19.5 per game). Arizona's defense bounced back strong after its two other losses, holding San Francisco to 17 points and Seattle to 13 points, both on the road. The offense loses third-leading WR DeAndre Hopkins after a bad injury Monday night. Arizona is 14-2 UNDER the total after getting 150 or fewer passing yards in the last game while Detroit's offense is #25 in total yards, #26 in passing, #29 in points (16.4 per game), and dead last on third down (31.90%). Also, NFL home teams like the Lions off a road loss of 21 or more points are 64-28 UNDER the total in the second half of the season. Play the UNDER.

Finally a break for Detroit after playing the great Chicago defense and the potent Packer offense. They get Pro Bowl WR Kenny Golladay back this week, teaming with above-average veteran QB Matthew Stafford (3 TDs, 2 INTs). They are #11 in the NFL in passing yards without Golladay. The Lions are 31-16 ATS on the road after a loss by 10+ points, plus 24-9 ATS away after a defeat by 14+ points. And NFL road dogs that surrendered 335+ total yards per game the previous campaign are 24-4 ATS after a game where they allowed 450+ yards. It's only Week 3 and rebuilding Arizona is getting too much respect with this betting number. Second-year QB Kyler Murray has as many TDs as picks (2) and the defense is giving up 120 yards rushing per contest (#15). NFL favorites that averaged 5.4 or more yards per play on offense the previous season are 23-51 ATS after gaining 400+ total yards, plus NFL home teams that surrendered 24+ points per game the previous year are 6-28 ATS after scoring 30+ points in the last game. Play Detroit.

All eyes will be on the desert as the Arizona Cardinals will have a completely different look. The league's worst defense has a new coordinator, and there will be a new high-octane fast-paced offense under Cliff Kingsbury, and that offense will be run by the electric Kyler Murray. Murray will give teams fits until they get some film on him and these modern-day rookie QBs have excelled early in the season, posting a 19-11 ATS mark in weeks 1-3. The Lions continue on with an improved defense, and a teasing QB. Matt Stafford always seems to have the rocket arm, and talent to be a top-tier NFL QB but he has just never gotten there, and Detroit has struggled with him under center for years. I think the energy level is going to be high in the desert, and the Cardinals will be unpredictable early with Kingsbury not tipping his hand in the NFL Preseason and with Murray running the show. Play on Arizona.

The Arizona Cardinals have won just three games on the season but pulled off the biggest upset of the season last week. A warm-weather team goes up to Lambeau Field where the Packers were 15-1 ATS in their last 16 home December games, and win in the cold and snow. Unfortunately, that sets the Cardinals up in a huge letdown spot. A team winning their previous game on the road as a +13.5 point underdog or more struggles to find the same energy in their next game, having gone 8-22 ATS. The Lions have had a 10-game stretch where they have had to go up against a team that is currently .500 or better on the season. It is the longest such stretch of any team in the NFL this season. I think the Lions finally smell an opportunity for a win, while Arizona is likely still celebrating their big win in Green Bay. Play on Detroit.