In this article you will learn:
- How the NFL playoffs differ from the regular season
- Why regular season betting strategies don't work
- The value of home-field advantage in the playoffs
How to Select your NFL Playoffs Picks
I just love the NFL postseason. Although there is obviously an opportunity to do well during the NFL regular season, the NFL playoffs provide a much more consistent and predictable set of circumstances. As opposed to going primarily with underdogs as I do during the regular season, I often lean toward the favorites in my NFL picks. Why is that, you ask? Here are some of the reasons:
The Cream Rises to The Top in The NFL Playoffs
The best teams usually win and cover the spread in the NFL playoffs. Identifying the best team is not always easy, but if you can, you can consistently win in the postseason. There are a myriad of stats to look at including straight-up records, core statistics (points, rushing, passing, etc.) and non-core stats (sacks, special teams, etc.). Look at yards per play and yards per point. I utilize a system that weights statistics based on their historical predictive properties.
The “Run up the Score” Syndrome
In the regular season we can spot situations where a favorite is poised to be upset by a supposedly lowly NFL underdog. In the regular season, even very strong teams sometimes let down their guard. In the NFL playoffs, letdowns rarely happen. This is no surprise. Players and coaches understand that they go home if they lose this game. So, the stronger teams play up to their true ability. The favorites in the NFL don’t often let up at the end of a game to allow a dog a late cover. In fact, in the playoffs, teams run up the score. Even if they are up by two touchdowns, the winning team wants to leave NOTHING to chance and will take the opportunity to score another two if they can. The unwritten rule in the NFL (don’t run up the score) goes out the window in January as opposing coaches and players don’t frown on having another team pile on. They would do it if the roles were reversed!
Home Sweet Home
It is widely recognized that home-field advantage in the NFL is important, with regular-season spreads adjusted by about 2.5 to 3.5 points in favor of the home team. But in the playoffs, home-field advantage takes on a whole new meaning. Home squads don’t have to travel after a long, brutal season, and the home-field energy from the crowd is especially intense in January. Weather plays a big role (just ask a warm weather team like Jacksonville or Tampa Bay having to travel to Pittsburgh or Green Bay in January). And the better team usually earned home-field advantage by playing awesome football for 18 weeks.
As the caliber increases, so does the win percentage for playoff home favorites. Check out these stats from 2002-23:
- Wild Card Round: 48-29 SU (.623)
- Divisional Round: 61-26 SU (.701)
- Conference Championship: 27-11 SU (.711)
As usual, point spreads are the great equalizer, and these playoff home favorites only cover around 47 percent of the time. Over the past 10 years, one exception is in the Conference Championship round, where home favorites boast a solid 14-4 SU and 11-7 ATS (61%) record.
Home underdogs are rare in the postseason, but they have shown value of late going 10-4 ATS (71%) from 2016 through 2023.
Statistical Handicapping Increases in Importance
In the playoffs, we have reliable data from 17 games worth of stats to evaluate. As stated earlier, the best teams step up in January, and there are fewer situational letdowns and surprises. The teams with the advantage in key statistical areas usually win and cover. Knowing which stats to emphasize can lead to very successful spread predictions. Usually, picking the better team will lead to a win and cover in the playoffs. The trick is determining which is the better team - it is often hidden.
Keep these items in mind when handicapping the NFL playoffs. My postseason picks utilize systems built around these variables.
Now, read about my approach to Super Bowl Picks.
Click here to see my philosophy for the NFL regular season.
Click here to see my philosophy for the NFL preseason.
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