UTEP Miners vs W. Kentucky Hilltoppers

UTEP is seeking its first win and it is getting a ton of points in this matchup even though the Miners kept it close in last year's meeting, losing 21-13 and covering as a 10-point underdog. The Miners come off a 41-21 loss to Sam Houston State, which piled up 293 rushing yards. QB Cade McConnell was 15 of 28 passing for 204 yards for the Miners. Western Kentucky lost 21-20 to Boston College and was outscored 14-3 in the second half. Caden Veltkamp finished 25 of 39 for 232 yards and two TDs with interceptions and he was sacked three times against the Eagles. UTEP has gone UNDER four of its five games this season and the Hilltoppers have stayed UNDER by an average of 10 points their past two games. Western Kentucky is 5-1-1 UNDER its past seven games against teams with losing records and the Hilltoppers are 8-1-1 UNDER following a loss. Western Kentucky is 1-9 ATS as a favorite of fewer than 20 points with rest. UTEP has covered 10 of 14 October games. Take UTEP and the UNDER.

Western Kentucky is 4-4 with a good shot at a bowl. They have a terrific QB in senior Austin Reed (20 TDs, 5 INTs). Western Kentucky is 22-10 ATS on field turf and 33-18 ATS on the road after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers. UTEP is 3-6 overall, including losing three of four at home. They have all kinds of injuries on offense including QBs Gavin Hardison (5 TDs, 7 picks) and Jake McNamara (concussion). Four quarterbacks have combined for nine TDs and nine interceptions and the defense is 86th in points given up (28.9 per game), 77th in yards allowed, and 107th on third down (44.66%). UTEP is 5-18 ATS after a road game where both teams scored 31+ points and 13-32 ATS after gaining 6.75+ yards per play. Play Western Kentucky.

Texas El Paso won't be going bowling but they haven't quit on the season, scoring 34 and 32 points the last two games, good for its best offensive outputs of the year. Two games ago they won at Rice, 34-26. They face a 1-9 Western Kentucky team that has lost six in a row and hasn't won at home all year. They are a TD-favorite but have scored 17, 10 and 15 points the last three games. Western Kentucky is #102 in the nation on offense in total yards, #126 in scoring (18.3 ppg), while the defense is #94 in yards allowed, surrendering over 196 yards rushing and passing per contest. Last season these teams played a 15-14 game and the big-underdog visitors have more than enough to pull the upset. Play Texas El Paso on the moneyline.

Western Kentucky has some issues. Their last four games have not been pretty as they have managed just a single win vs. Old Dominion. Old Dominion has allowed 41 points or more in six straight games, and Western Kentucky needed most of the 66 points they scored in that one to get the win 66-51. This is a team that has given up 500 yards or more in each of their last four games, and have allowed just shy of 50 ppg. There comes a point in time when you have to stop someone but the Hilltoppers just haven't been able to do it. Last week their offense couldn't get it going and they went down 59-10. UTEP has made great strides and have won three straight games, and in the process they have out-scored their opponents 111-49. The take here is they obviously can score, and will score a lot against Western Kentucky, but they have also allowed just 16.3 ppg in their last three so they certainly have a shot at getting a few more stops here. The Hilltoppers are just 1-6 ATS after allowing 280 passing yards in their previous game, which has become the norm, allowing over an average of 350 yards per game in their last four. Play the points on UTEP.