Texas State Bobcats vs Troy Trojans

Troy has opened the season at 4-2. The two losses were against some strong competition in Ole Miss and Appalachian St. The Trojans played above the line in those games and covered them both by a combined 13.5 points. Troy has been impressive thus far as they have covered all 5 of their games vs FBS opponents. Texas St. is off a huge upset win over Appalachian St as a 19-point underdog. The stats tell a different story however as they were out-gained by over 100 yards. This looks to be a huge flat spot for the Bobcats taking to the road after a huge upset. There isn't much else on the Bobcat's resume, and I think Troy will have both eyes open here after seeing the Bobcat's big win. Make the play on Troy in this one.

Troy has had a tough schedule, but it has played well, losing 23-14 at South Carolina of the SEC, beating Southern Miss (21-9), and then topping Georgia Southern last week, 27-24. Troy is 12-5 ATS as a road favorite, 9-3 on Field-Turf, and 20-8 ATS on the road after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in two straight. They face a Texas State squad that has gone 17-60 over the last six-plus seasons. This Texas State team has no defense, surrendering 42, 59, and 31 points the last three games. One of those was a 42-28 loss to Incarnate Word while allowing 455 yards (376 passing). It was Incarnate Word's first win ever over an FBS team. The Texas State ground game averages 3.6 yards per rush, and sophomore QB Brady McBride has 9 TDs with 6 INTs while getting sacked 14 times. Troy has covered five of the last six meetings, including a 37-17 rout last year with an edge in yards, 488-254. Play Troy.

Texas State has been competitive behind a strong offense that is averaging 32.8 points. A pair of QBs have combined for 10 TDs and 4 picks on an offense that ranks #31 in the nation with 412.8 total yards per game. They come off a 24-21 loss at Boston College, covering five of their last six, including 4-0 ATS as a dog. The defense held BC to 3.2 yards per rush while the offense had the edge in yards, 357-297, while going 7-of-15 on third down. Texas State has had two weeks to prepare and faces a Troy squad licking its wounds after a 48-7 loss to BYU. They got steamrolled everywhere, outgained 664-181. The defense is allowing 452.5 yards allowed per game. Troy is 8-22 ATS at home off one or more consecutive UNDERS, and the visitors have more than enough offensive punch to keep this conference game close. Back Texas State.