San Diego State Aztecs vs Wyoming Cowboys

It is very rare to see an NCAA Football game with a total of fewer than 40 points, especially at the FBS level. The Mountain West Conference has seen just two previous games since the start of the 2010 season in a conference game get posted with a total of fewer than 40 points. I should note that both of those games went under the total and averaged a combined 26.5 points per game. Both of these offenses are below average and the two defenses have combined to allow just 31.8 ppg on the season. San Diego State Coach Rocky Long has seen his teams go 66-41 to the UNDER in their last 107 including 42-22 to the UNDER on grass. Wyoming comes in at 40-15 to the UNDER if they are off at least a pair of spread wins. Make your play on the UNDER.

This game is for the Mountain West Conference Championship. These teams have both limped across the finish line with Wyoming dropping two of their last three, and San Diego State has dropped their last two, including a one-point loss right here vs. Wyoming. The Aztecs are going to hand the ball off to Donnell Pumphrey, who by the end of their Bowl game, should close out his career having gained more yards than any player in NCAA Football history. The Aztecs have run for 276 yards per game at 6.1 yards per tote, and Wyoming allows 5.3 yards per carry vs. teams that average just 5.1, so clearly this is the biggest advantage in this contest. While the Aztecs have out-gained their opponent by +108 yards per game on the season, Wyoming has been out-gained by -28 yards a contest. That translates poorly for the Cowboys to win the conference. Take San Diego State minus the points.

San Diego State won last year's meeting 38-3 in a dead UNDER. Now the Aztecs get to face this season's version of Wyoming, which might have nothing left after a wild 69-66 triple-overtime loss at UNLV on Saturday. UNLV ran 64 times for 401 yards while the Cowboys got most of their yardage through the air as Josh Allen completed 14-of-31 for 334 yards and four touchdowns (two INTs)  Brian Hill rushed for 119 yards on 23 carries for the Cowboys. San Diego State has clinched the West Division of the Mountain West Conference and has its sights set on a major Bowl game. The Aztecs defense has allowed just 86.4 rushing yards per game, which trails only Alabama, and 283.3 yards per game, which is good for fifth in the country. Also, San Diego State is seventh in scoring defense at 15.2 points per contest. The Aztecs will use a lot of clock running the ball as they have the nation's leading rusher in Donnel Pumphrey, who has racked up 1,779 yards this season. Wyoming has gone UNDER in five of its last six games after scoring 40-plus points. This one stays UNDER.