Penn State Nittany Lions vs USC Trojans

Penn State remained undefeated with a 27-11 win over UCLA, it went UNDER for the third straight game and it is 7-2 UNDER dating to last season. The Nittany Lions are 5-1 ATS their past six games against teams with winning home records and they are 8-1 ATS their past nine road games overall. USC is 0-6 ATS its past six October games and the Trojans have lost two of three after a 24-17 defeat at Minnesota last week. Penn State QB Drew Allar threw for 237 yards and a TD pass and ran for another score against the Bruins. Kaytron Allen filled in for injured Nick Singleton and ran for 78 of the team's 85 rushing yards. The Trojans lost when Minnesota QB Max Brosner scored from the 1-yard line on fourth down with 56 seconds left. USC was victimized by eight penalties for 59 yards. The Trojans are just 5-10 ATS their past 15 games and 1-10 ATS against Big Ten opponents. Take Penn State and the UNDER.

ROSE BOWL - Penn State has won and covered eight games in a row, including a win over Ohio State, and against Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship game. The Nittany Lions can make a good case that they should have been in the four-team playoff, but two early losses cost them the opportunity. However, the Rose Bowl is a great consolation prize, and the Penn State players are happy and motivated to come out with a good performance. Trace McSorley has completed 57.5 percent of his passes for 3,360 yards and 25 touchdowns with only five interceptions. Saquon Barkley has 1,302 rushing yards on 5.3 yards per carry and 16 touchdowns. Penn State is #23 in the country averaging 433.4 yards per game and #23 in points scored per game (36.7). The Nittany Lions feature six players with at least 347 receiving yards, led by Chris Godwin with 795 yards and nine touchdowns. USC quarterback Sam Darnold has thrown 26 touchdown passes and eight interceptions while completing 68.1 percent of his passes for 2,633 yards. Ronald Jones averages 6.1 yards per rush and has 11 TDs, and Juju Smith-Schuster has 63 catches for 781 yards and nine touchdowns. The Trojans have covered just one of their last five games against Big Ten teams, and the Pac-12 is arguably the weaker conference this season. Penn State has won its last six games by an average score of 45-19, with four of those games away from home. The points loom large in this matchup. Play Penn State.

It is hard to believe with the success that Penn State has had, that this will be their first Rose Bowl appearance since 1994-95. Coach Paterno has been a mastermind preparing his team for Bowl games. The Nittany Lions are 9-2 in their last 11 Bowl appearances, out-scoring opponents by 125 points in the process (11.4 per game). Paterno has only lost five out of 34 Bowl games by more than a TD. This year he has a solid team on both sides of the ball and were one point away from the National Championship game and an undefeated season as their only blemish was a one-point loss to Iowa. The Lions have put up 45 points or more in seven of their games and have an explosive offense. But at the same time they held 10 opponents to 18 or less. The Trojans are a very good team, but looking at the schedule, the fact that they were at least a 21-point favorite in nine of 12 games shows that there were few challenges. The Trojans averaged a line of -26.2 points per game and were never a favorite of less than 10.5 the entire season. That usually means the defense and the offense are a bit overrated, because the numbers came from a lot of empty games. Don't get me wrong. This is a very good USC team. But I question their motivation here, and also their ability to play if someone gives them a game. When they got behind at Oregon State they simply didn't respond. They got to within seven points and the nation’s leading defense cracked and allowed Oregon State to put the game away with another score. I like the points here. The fact that USC has the best defense in the country may be true, but not against teams like Penn State and they will get their share here. The Trojans have played their last four Bowl games with similar defenses, and all four games went OVER. I expect this one to do the same. I'm going Penn State and the OVER in this one.