Ohio State Buckeyes vs Oregon Ducks

Two of the top three teams in the country meet, and this one should be good. Ohio State is No. 1 in the nation in yards allowed and points given up (6.8 per game), plus 15th on third down (30%). The Buckeyes have opened the Big Ten campaign holding Michigan State and Iowa to seven points each. Ohio State is on a 12-6 run UNDER the total. Oregon is 12th in the country defensively in yards allowed and 16th in points given up (17.8 per contest). The Ducks are on a 12-6 run UNDER the total. Play Ohio State/Oregon UNDER the total. 

Finally we get to settle things on the field in College Football. Bravo! Oregon dispatched of Florida State last week 59-20. Can this offense be contained? The oddsmakers and public seem to think not. But, this team is not infallible. They led Arizona just 7-3 at the half in the first meeting on the way to a 31-24 defeat as 24-point favorite. The Big Ten's other dominant team alongside Ohio State is Michigan State, and the Spartans went to Oregon back in September and were in command into the fourth quarter leading 27-18. The Spartans eventually lost 46-27 with a late meltdown thanks to a long road trip plus temperatures nearing 100 degrees in Oregon that afternoon. And what about this Oregon defense? In that loss to Arizona they allowed 495 yards (208 rushing), and the offense turned it over twice. Michigan State also gouged the Ducks for 466 yards (123 rushing). This Oregon front seven on defense is not stellar. Ohio State beat Michigan State on the road, 49-37, and also crushed Wisconsin 59-0, before beating the #1 team in Alabama last week to get here. Urban Meyer took over an Ohio State program after the 2011 season when they went 6-7. Since then the Buckeyes have gone 37-3, including 25-1 in Big Ten play. He's been forced to use his third-string QB for this game, and for the season Ohio State QBs have combined for 41 TDs and 11 picks! This guy can coach. He knows talent and has had brought in assistant coaches who are outstanding, including new defensive assistants for this season that have helped upgrade the defense. Meyer is 8-2 in Bowl games and shouldn't be given 7 points. In his coaching career he is an incredible 21-5 ATS as an underdog! At Ohio State, he is 5-0 straight-up as a dog. Finally, Meyer is 11-1 straight-up in his career vs. great offensive teams like Oregon (teams that score 31+ per game). The last two games the Buckeyes beat No. 13 Wisconsin 59-0 and #1 Alabama 42-35. They match up very well with the Ducks and have a big edge in coaching. Play Ohio State with the points and on the moneyline. Also take the UNDER in the first-half as this total is inflated. Oregon's defense has stepped up of late allowing their last four opponents just 10, 19, 13 and 20 total points. In those games the Ducks gave up just 3, 3, 0 and 13 first-half points. Ohio State has held four of their last five opponents to 14 or fewer first-half points. So, even with these powerful offenses, getting to 38 is a stretch. In big games like this, there is a lot of pressure on young guys and I expect a slow start (with possibly a flurry of a finish once the jitters wear off). All of the last four CFB championship games with a high first-half total (26 or greater) have gone UNDER the total in the first half with those games averaging 24.5 total first-half points vs. an average first-half total of 35 (over 10 points UNDER on average). On the season, Ohio State games have averaged 34 first-half points and Oregon games 36. This total is inflated because the public wants to bet the OVER. Look for a slow start to this game and take the first-half UNDER. Also look for the Buckeyes to keep this game close at a minimum, and very possibly winning this game outright.

Rose Bowl - Pasadena, CA. The 96th edition of the Rose Bowl features Ohio State and Oregon. The Buckeyes enter here at 10-2 and are off of five straight wins to close out the season and this will be their 5th consecutive BCS Bowl appearance. These teams have shared the gridiron seven times, with the Buckeyes coming up roses in all seven. The Buckeyes are a run oriented team, but I expect them to surprise the Ducks here by opening up the offense as coach Tressel's recent quote may indicate: "I think we've got to be more efficient and I think we've got to strike when there's opportunities to strike. We had a couple chances in the last game where we could have hit a homerun and we didn't. We have to be able to hit homeruns when people decide they're going to put X amount of people in the box to stop your run." The Ducks have a well-balanced potent offense, but we have seen top defenses, notably Nebraska vs. Pac-10 Arizona completely dominate as the Wildcats were a shutout victim. The Ducks are also a run-first team, but will have trouble running against the Buckeyes’ stop unit. The Buckeyes' defense is awesome, allowing just 12.2 points per game this season (11.4 on the road). Contrast that to the Ducks who allow 28 per game on the road and 31.7 in their last three. Ohio State has flourished in big games as they are on a 7-1 ATS run against teams with a winning record (36-20 ATS vs. such teams in the Tressel era). They are also on an amazing 22-5 ATS run in their last 27 on grass. This game looks pretty even to me, but the one caveat I see that favors the Buckeyes is that they have had a long time to work on opening up the offense as teams stack the box to stop the run. I can see Oregon getting burned once to give the Buckeyes the advantage. This is actually a big game for the Bukeyes who are making their first Rose Bowl appearance since 1997. Ohio State gets the call.