Illinois Fighting Illini vs Purdue Boilermakers

Purdue has played a tough schedule and it has a 1-4 record to show for it, but the Boilermakers hope to keep it reasonably close this week against Illinois, which has lost the past four meetings, including by a 44-19 score last year. It's a look-ahead game for the Fighting Illini, who have Michigan on deck and Oregon the week after. Illinois is 2-17-1 ATS its past 20 home games against teams that are coming off a straight up and ATS loss. The Illini lost 21-7 to Penn State last week while yielding 239 rushing yards on 5.4 yards per carry. QB Luke Altmyer was 16 of 25 for 185 yards and a TD with an interception for Illinois and the game went UNDER by 20 points. The Illini have stayed UNDER four of five games this season. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Illinois' past five games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing its previous game. Purdue has averaged 11 points its past four games. The Boilermakers have won their past six road games against Illinois, which is 2-9-1 ATS its past 12 home contests. Take the points with Purdue and the UNDER.

Illinois QBs Luke Altmyer and John Paddock have combined for 5 TDs and 7 interceptions. The offense is 83rd in the nation in points scored (22 per game) and 55th on third down (41.30%). Illinois is on a 19-8 run UNDER the total, 12-2 UNDER as a dog, and 48-30 UNDER on natural grass. Purdue's offense is 72nd in the country in points scored (24.3 per game) and 57th on third down (41.07%). QB Hudson Card has thrown 3 TDs and picks. When they last met on this field two years ago it was a 13-9 final and this looks like another defensive duel. It's a pair of Big 10 teams that have big offensive weaknesses. Take Illinois/Purdue UNDER the total. 

Purdue could manage only a field goal in its 24-3 loss to Iowa on Saturday and quarterback Aidan O'Connell had another rough day finishing 20 of 43 for 168 yards with no TDs and two interceptions for a 39.3 QB rating. The Boilermakers were outyarded 376-255 by the Hawkeyes, who are #129 in the country in total offense yards and the game stayed UNDER by 13 points. Illinois is 6-1-1 UNDER its past eight games, including a 23-15 loss to Michigan State last week as a 16.5-point favorite and the Fighting Illini were stopped five times on fourth down. Illinois does lead the nation in total yards allowed and scoring defense (10.4 points per game). The past five meetings have gone UNDER, including Purdue's 13-9 victory in 2021 that went UNDER by 32 points. The UNDER is 9-2 in the Boilermakers' past 11 games following an ATS loss and Illinois is 16-5-1 UNDER against teams with winning records. Take the UNDER as a Max Play. 

Purdue keeps getting better, ending last season 2-2 with wins over Nebraska and Northwestern along with a one-point double-overtime loss to Indiana. They started this season with an impressive 24-20 comeback win over Iowa. Purdue has covered five in a row and is 18-6-2 ATS on FieldTurf. They can keep the momentum going against a rebuilding Illinois squad off a losing 2019 campaign. They come off a 45-7 loss to Wisconsin as senior QB Brandon Peters was 8-of-19 for 87 yards. Illinois is on a 71-98 ATS run at home, including 23-40 at home off a road loss, plus 15-30 ATS after allowing 42-plus points in the previous game. Play Purdue.