Ball State Cardinals vs Kent State Golden Flashes

Ball State is struggling and has no balance with a running game that averages just 2.9 yards per carry. This puts too much pressure on QB Kadin Semonza (11 TDs, 7 INTs) to carry the load, and he's been sacked 16 times in five games. Kent State's offense is averaging just 14.8 points per game. The ground game is awful averaging a ridiculous 1.8 yards per carry with leading rusher Ky Thomas (139 yards, 3.0 ypc). They're winless, even losing to St. Francis, 23-17, as a 17-point favorite. Ball State won last year's meeting, 34-3, in a game that sailed UNDER, and this total is too high. Take Ball State/Kent State UNDER the total. 

Ball State has a losing road record and comes off a 20-16 home loss to Eastern Michigan as a favorite. Over the last two seasons, QB John Paddock has 14 TDs, 10 picks. The offense has averaged 19.3 points in the last three games. Ball State is on a 4-10 ATS run, 5-13 ATS against losing teams, and 14-24 ATS after failing to cover. Kent State has won 12 in a row at home and has a very strong balance on offense. QB Collin Schlee (8 TDs, 4 INTs) has missed the last two games but backup QB Devin Kargman (3 TDs, 2 INTs) has played well while RB Marquez Cooper (845 yards, 4.6 ypc) provides the balance. After opening the season at Washington and Oklahoma, Kent State's offense has averaged 34 points. Kent State won the last meeting versus Ball State scoring 41 points and the home team has covered six of the last seven meetings. Play Kent State.

Kent State arguably had the worst offense in the entire FBS last season. They averaged just 12.8 points per game, and that included a 38-point outburst vs. Howard. They were limited to just three points or fewer in five of their other 11 games. They managed just 272 yards per contest and made 2.2 turnovers per game. This year they scored 58 points vs. Howard, and their other three games, all against Power 5 conference teams in Penn State, Mississippi State, and Illinois they managed just 17 ppg. While things look bad, they are much better than the numbers indicate, and they are going to sneak up on Ball State in this one. The Cardinals managed just 17 ppg last season and allowed 40, average just 15.3 ppg against three FBS opponents, and have allowed 33 ppg in their last two vs. Western Kentucky and Indiana. Their game vs Notre Dame that finished 24-16 in a loss has this team looking a lot better than it really is. Play on Kent State.