Washington at Phoenix

Phoenix has lost five in a row and they may again be without the reigning MVP Diana Taurasi. But I like them here at home. This team averages 96 points per game at home and Washington gets nearly 20 points less on average per game. Yes, the Mercury defense is atrocious, but here at home, desperately in need of a win to stop the bleeding, I think the Phoenix defense shows up. Washington has won four of their last six and they seem to be rolling, but this team is just 6-17 ATS thee past three seasons when coming off a home win (including 3-12 when that win was in a division game). As added motivation, Phoenix is seeking revenge here for a 10-point loss to Washington in June. The Mercury are 16-5 ATS the past two seasons when seeking revenge. I like them to break their skid with a win and cover here.