Washington at Connecticut

This one could get very ugly and as a result, we see a sky-high spread of nearly 15 points in this game. I'm taking the points. In three prior matchups this season between these teams, Connecticut won by 8, 13 and 7 points - not once covering a number this large. The last game saw Washington stay the closest they have been in a long time vs. the Sun, giving them some confidence entering this game. The problem for Connecticut is that their defense isn't very good. Despite scoring 87 points per game at home they are just 6-3 in this building straight-up thanks to a defense that gives up 80 points per game at home (more than they even allow on the road). That gives the Mystics a chance of hanging. The Sun have never performed well against the number when facing bad defensive teams like Washington. Connecticut is just 27-44 ATS at home when facing teams that allow 73+ points per game. The Sun also run the risk of a letdown. Over the past couple of seasons, this team is just 5-13 ATS after back-to-back wins. In their history, they are 15-29 ATS at home following three straight wins. Take the big points here. Also take the OVER. Connecticut home games have averaged almost 167 points this season! Washington is allowing 82 per game on the road this year and they will score against this porous Sun defense. Connecticut is 42-24 to the OVER at home vs. losing teams in their history and over the past couple of seasons, they are 13-5 OVER at home following a division game. Take Washington and the OVER.