San Antonio at Seattle

The Storm have been waiting for this one since Tuesday when they lost to San Antonio on a buzzer-beater three-point shot. Seattle had that game in hand for three quarters (leading by 10 at the start of the fourth), but then fell apart. They are going to be bringing it here in search of revenge. They now get this game on their home court and they should really roll here. The Silver Stars are just 2-6 SU and ATS on the road this season while the Storm are 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS at home. The defensive difference is big as Seattle gives up over 10 points per game less at home than does San Antonio on the road. The Storm are 21-9 ATS the past three seasons at home when facing a team that allows 73+ points per game (San Antonio allows 75 per game overall and nearly 79 per game on the road). Over the past two seasons, San Antonio is 4-12 ATS on the road against division opponents. Seattle meanwhile is 19-9 ATS as a home favorite over that same timespan. Over the past three seasons, Seattle is 14-5 ATS at home coming off a loss. I like the Storm here. I also like this game to go OVER the total. San Antonio division games have averaged 152 points per game and their last five games overall have reached 157 per game. Seattle division games have averaged 147 per game. When facing a winning team over the past three seasons, San Antonio is 22-13 to the OVER. They are also 29-17 OVER the past two seasons when facing a team that averages 73+ ppg. Over the past three seasons, when coming off a game in which they scored 80+ points, the Silver Stars are 21-10 OVER.