Phoenix at Minnesota

Don't mess with the defending champs! Phoenix is playing great again at the right time of the season, winning two in a row and advancing to the Western Conference Finals again. Phoenix has great balance, sixth in points scored, rebounds and assists, plus fourth in points allowed. That defense was on display the last two games, shutting down Tulsa allowing 55 and 67 points in wins by 33 and 24 points. Phoenix is on a 4-1-1 ATS run and the Mercury are 3-1-1 ATS against the Western Conference. With that strong defense Phoenix is 20-7 UNDER the total against a team with a winning record, including 11-4 UNDER vs. the Western Conference. The defending champion Mercury ended Minnesota's run of three straight trips to the finals last year with a tense 2-1 win in the three-game series. Minnesota is on a 1-5 ATS run, 1-8 ATS following a victory and 2-6 ATS against a team with a winning record. Because of injuries and trades, the Lynx starting five entered the playoffs having played a grand total of 50 minutes together for the season. Minnesota can play defense, too, third in the league in points allowed, 5-2 UNDER the total at home and 9-3 UNDER against the Western Conference. They bring that defense to bear in the postseason, too, at 5-1 UNDER the total in Conference Finals games. When these rivals clash the UNDER is 20-8, including 8-0 UNDER the total here in Minnesota, so grab the dog in a close, defensive battle. Take Phoenix and the UNDER.