Phoenix at Los Angeles

Do you remember that 1991 song by C&C Music Factory, "Things That Make You Go Hmmmm"? Well this game reminds me of that song. Phoenix won five more games than LA this season. Phoenix beat LA in three out of four regular season meetings. Yet, the Mercury are the underdog here. Hmmm. Phoenix is averaging 99 points in the playoffs after setting a WNBA record for points scored in the regular season (92.8 per game). Yet, they are the dog here. Hmmm. Well maybe Phoenix can't win on the road? Actually they are 11-7 away from home, not much worse than the Sparks' 12-6 home mark. Hmmm. Maybe the Mercury only beat up on lesser opponents, struggling to beat good teams. Actually, Phoenix is 12-5 ATS this season vs. winning teams including 7-0 in their last seven games. But Phoenix is coming off a poor defensive showing, allowing 92 points to San Antonio. That can't be good, right? As a matter of fact, Phoenix has done this 18 times this season and they are  14-4 ATS in games following a poor defensive effort. Finally, the Sparks are 0-8 ATS the past three seasons coming off a double-digit road win. I like Phoenix plus the points here.