Phoenix at Los Angeles

It has been tough season for the Phoenix Mercury. They lost their top two players early in the season and never recovered, standing in at a dismal 7-24. Now they lose Diana Turasi yet again, with an ailing back. There are also a few more questionable starters here with nagging injuries. The Mercury have been on this road all season, so it is nothing new to them. The fact is that they are 5-0 ATS when posted at +13.5 or more in their last five. They also find a way to generate offense. Three of those five games have played to 172 total points or more. The Sparks are pretty much locked-in to the No. 2 seed in the playoffs, and with a few fragile stars, I don't see any reason for them to be going all out here. They have shown that the "A" game pretty much stays off the floor vs. a losing team at 1-4 ATS in their last five. Phoenix has shown the propensity to play OVER of late on a single day of rest now 4-1 to the OVER in their last five in this situation. The Sparks have played five straight to the OVER on three or more days of rest. This series has seen seven of the last nine eclipse the total when meeting in LA. Play on Phoenix, and take the OVER.