Phoenix at Los Angeles

This is an evenly matched game between two strong Western Conference rivals. They just met two games ago when Los Angeles squeezed out a two-point win at Phoenix. The Phoenix Mercury have a +6.5 differential in scoring, second best in the league behind previously undefeated Minnesota. Phoenix has a powerful frontcourt and is 41-21 ATS against teams who average 37 or fewer rebounds per game. Los Angeles is favored, but has been overvalued while on a 2-6 spread run. The Sparks come off an 80-75 victory over winless San Antonio, nearly blowing a 20-point second-half lead. And Los Angeles is 58-90 ATS at home when the total is 150 or higher. Play Phoenix.