Minnesota at Phoenix

The Minnesota Lynx have built a resume in the WNBA over the last several years that has them standing a great distance away the next best team. It has caused the oddsmakers to tax their lines. No, when the Lynx go on the road vs. a talented team, it has been a place where the numbers posted by the oddsmakers gets exposed. The Lynx have put together an amazing 146-114-3 ATS mark in their last 263 games, but this is their worst spot. When the Lynx hit the road against a competent team, one with a winning record, those pristine numbers turn ugly. The Lynx are a woeful 11-21 ATS, and better than that, they have a losing record at 15-17. The difference is the ability to defend. Overall, the Lynx allow 74.9 points per game in those 263 games, but on the road vs. a winning team as a road favorite, they allow 82.3 ppg. Subsequently, the 32 road contests vs. a competitive team have been 23-9 to the OVER. The Mercury has Turasi and Griner, who can explode at any time, and facing a one-loss team should bring out the best in them. The Mercury have become an OVER team at 6-1-1 to the OVER in their last eight. Take the points on Phoenix and also play the OVER.