Los Angeles at Phoenix

As you know, I was on the Mercury big in game one of this match-up on the road. I couldn't see why they were getting points. Turns out they didn't need them. Well, now it's time to flip. Coming out of game one, the Sparks have to realize one thing and that is if they allow Phoenix to run up and down the floor, they are going home. The Mercury have now scored 100+ in three straight WNBA playoff games and it's obvious there's one way and only one way to beat this team: slow them down. The Mercury are 21-1 on the season when they score 92+ points, and they are 2-10 when they don't get to 90, so there is one way to beat this team, frustrate them and slow them down. This formula worked for the Sparks on the last day of the regular seasons when they won at Phoenix. They won that game because they controlled tempo and held the Mercury to 78 points. This is a Sparks team that was supposed to be in this position, fighting for the Finals. A slow start left doubts, but they have gone 12-5 in their last 17 games. The loss on Wednesday was their first in seven games and it should serve as a wakeup call. This is a must-win game and LA will come out on fire. They know what to do and they know they can win here. The Sparks are 29-11 ATS the past two seasons revenging a loss including 11-3 ATS this season. They are 6-0 ATS off a home loss to a division rival. LA could win this game and if they go down tonight, I believe it will be a very close loss.