Indiana at Detroit

Indiana is playing for their playoff lives here. Will they win? Certainly not. But, I expect them to give a top-notch effort and keep it closer than double-digits. After their easy opening game win, and given their strong home record and histortic dominance over the Fever (six straight wins), it would not be surprising to see Detroit get caught sleeping a bit here. The overconfidence has shown already a bit as Detroit guard Deanna Nolan said after game one, "They have trouble with our personnel, our starting five. It doesn't matter who they try to stop, somebody else is going to get off." Home favorites off three straight wins cover the spread just 36% of the time in the WNBA and the Shock are just 6-15 ATS since last season as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Over that span, they are also 8-7 ATS at home after scoring 75+ points last game. I like the Fever to cover here.