Chicago at Las Vegas

Chicago worked hard to get into the postseason on a 6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS run. That included a 102-91 win at Connecticut as a +9.5 dog and a close loss to top-seeded Las Vegas, 94-87, covering as a +14 underdog. This organization made some changes that took time to gel but they're used to the playoffs, being the No. 2 seed last year while winning the WNBA title in 2021. The Sky have a strong three-guard attack led by 2021 Finals MVP Kahleah Copper (18.7 ppg), rank third in the WNBA in 3-point shooting as a team (37.2%), No. 1 in 3-point defense allowing 6.3 treys per game, and fourth at defending beyond the arc (33.4% shooting allowed). Chicago is 15-4 ATS versus the Western Conference, 18-9 ATS on the road against teams that shoot 33%+ from long range, plus 20-10 ATS away against teams that average 77+ points. Chicago is also 47-25 OVER the total after having won six or seven of their last eight, plus 181-144 OVER after giving up 75+ points in back-to-back contests. Powerhouse Las Vegas has been overvalued on a 3-8 spread run. They're also 33-54 ATS at home after playing three straight divisional games and 50-73 ATS at home after covering two of three. They prefer an uptempo game, No. 1 in the WNBA in scoring (92.8 ppg), shooting (48.6%), and free-throws (84%), plus second in 3-point shooting. Las Vegas is 34-22 OVER the total after allowing 70+ points in three straight games and 17-3 OVER in the first round of the playoffs. With NBA underdogs like Chicago 35-15 ATS revenging a home loss to an opponent while coming off an upset win as a dog, back the visitors in Game 1 in a high-scoring affair. Play Chicago + OVER the total.