Atlanta at Seattle

Both of these teams own identical 8-9 marks, but one team is 8 points better than the other? I'm not buying it. Yes, this game is in Seattle and the Storm have won seven of their last nine. But, they have also gone just .500 over their past four games, and Atlanta has won four of their last six. The reality is that the underlying strength of these teams isn't as pronounced as this line would lead you to believe. The absence of Lauren Jackson (out for Australian Olympic team) has really hurt Seattle this season and even with her last season, Atlanta couldn't sniff victory vs. Atlanta in their two meetings. Atlanta won 70-53 and 92-63 in the two matchups in 2011. Yet, Seattle is supposed to win here by 9+ points? Atlanta averages 8 points per game more on the offensive end, yet the Storm are supposed to win in a blowout? Take the Dream with the points. Also take the UNDER here. Atlanta is 11-5 to the UNDER this season while Seattle is 10-7 UNDER. Seattle's defense at home has been very good and while Atlanta will score, it won't be up to their average. When facing a team like Seattle that hits 33%+ from beyond the arc, the Dream are 7-1 to the UNDER this season. When facing up-tempo teams like Atlanta (teams that average 62+ shots per game), Seattle is 28-16 UNDER over the past couple of seasons. Seattle is also 25-9 to the UNDER vs. great offensive teams (those averaging 77+ per game) since last season. Finally, after allowing 75+ points this season, Atlanta is 7-1 to the UNDER. Take the Dream plus the UNDER.