Atlanta at Seattle

There haven’t been too many teams as efficient at home over the past several years as the Seattle Storm. Seattle is 58-6 straight-up at home, and when they are favored by less than 6.5 they have covered over 75% of the time. They are a bigger favorite than that here but they can certainly handle this number. While they appear to be a tick down from the teams we have seen in the past few years, it has not translated any differently at home where they are 9-1 on the season, covering the spread 67% of the time. This team allows just 67.3 points per game here compared to 83.7 allowed by Atlanta on the road. Since last season, the Storm are 27-15 ATS vs. poor defensive teams (those allowing 77+ per game). Atlanta's coming off a high-scoring affair and that's not a good sign for them as the Dream are just 1-7 ATS this season after a game in which 165+ points were scored. Take the Storm. I also like the OVER in this game. Atlanta doesn't have much of a defense, allowing 83.7 per game on the road and 80+ in four of their last six. They gave up 109 two days ago in Phoenix. The Dream are 46-28 OVER the past three seasons after scoring 75+ in their previous game. Over that same span, Seattle is 9-1 OVER revenging a double-digit loss, as they are here. Take Seattle and the OVER.