Atlanta at Phoenix

Atlanta is a big road dog, but is playing well in winning three of four. Atlanta is on a 4-1 spread run, plus 8-2 ATS against a team with a winning record. Atlanta has plenty of offensive punch, third in the WNBA in rebounds and assists, but the defense isn't always sharp on the road (#7 in points allowed). The Dream is 10-4 ATS against the Western Conference, as well as 3-1-1 OVER the total on the road. During this 3-1 SU/ATS run Atlanta beat Washington and New York straight-up as a dog. Atlanta is in a good situational spot too, playing seven of the last eight at home, with the only road game a 100-96 loss as a +8 dog. Phoenix is getting overvalued by oddsmakers, riding a five-game win streak. Phoenix is averaging 85.8 points in that run after scoring 72.1 through its first eight. The Mercury is on a 2-5 ATS run, 2-6 ATS following a win and 1-4 ATS against a team with a losing record. Phoenix (fourth in the WNBA in scoring) loves to run at home and the OVER is 4-1 when the Mercury face the Eastern Conference. Take the points on Atlanta and play the game total OVER.