Atlanta at New York

The Liberty opened the season by posting three of their first six wins that would have covered this line, but they have not been faring nearly as well. In their last nine games the Liberty would cover a line this size just once, and that includes two with this Atlanta Dream team, where their average winning margin has been just seven points. Their play at home has not been worthy of such a large spread as well. The Liberty has been 1-2 at home, squeaking out a single-point win and getting dumped by two losing teams. For as bad as the Dream has been all season, the actuality is they would be 11-2 ATS on the road against a line of this size, so I see a serious overlay in this one and will back the Dream.