Minnesota Lynx vs New York Liberty

Minnesota has lost two of its last three postseason road games. They lost at Connecticut, 92-82, pulled an upset over New York in overtime in Game 1 of this series, then got routed in Game 2 on the road, 80-66. New York was second in the WNBA during the regular season in points scored and fourth in shooting, while the defense was second in points given up and third in shooting allowed (43.1%). Their +9.2 scoring differential was the best in the league. Counting the playoffs, New York is 21-5 straight up at home this season with the wagering value on the home team to win the game. Play New York on the moneyline. 

Minnesota has to be demoralized after leading most of the way and then losing on a 3-pointer from beyond the top of the key by Sabrina Ionescu with one second left. Breanna Stewart scored 30 points for New York, which is one game away from erasing last year's memory when it lost to Las Vegas in the finals. The Lynx were held to 39 percent shooting although they went 9-for-21 on 3-point tries. The Liberty are 6-0 ATS following an ATS loss, 10-3 ATS their past 13 road games and 5-2-1 ATS on one day of rest. New York has won six of its past seven road games outright and it will be tough for the Lynx to get up off the mat after Wednesday's devastating loss. Take the Liberty.

New York almost blew a lead again but prevailed to win 80-66 and even the series at 1-1. Breanna Stewart scored 21 points and Betnijah Lanry-Hamilton added 20 to help the Liberty hold off the Lynx after being ahead 46-31 at one point in the first half. The Liberty are 17-5 on the road and are a slight favorite in Game 3. They have covered five of their past six road games, including a 76-62 win at Las Vegas to clinch the WNBA semifinal series. Sunday's game went UNDER by 16.5 points as Minnesota hit only six of 20 shots from 3-point land. The Lynx are 12-5 UNDER their past 17 home games and 11-4 UNDER overall following a loss. Also, Minnesota is 2-6 ATS after a loss since July, and they were favored in all eight matchups. This line tells a story. Take the Liberty on the moneyline, and bet this game to stay UNDER the total.

The posted total for Game 2 is a little higher based on Thursday's 95-93 overtime win by Minnesota, which shot 51 percent and hit nine of 22 3-pointers. New York shot only 38 percent but took 19 more shots. Look for the Liberty to clamp down defensively because they can't afford to go Minnesota down 2-0 and the Lynx figure to cool off somewhat against some defensive adjustments. The Lynx were #2 in the WNBA defensively in the regular season allowing 75.6 points per game and they led the league in defending the 3-pointer allowing just 30.1 percent. New York was #3 in scoring defense giving up 76.4 points and 32.4 percent from 3-point distance. Take the UNDER.

Minnesota got back to playing strong defense and the Lynx won the deciding Game 5 against Connecticut 88-77 while allowing just 38 percent shooting overall and 35 percent from 3-point distance. Napheesa Collier scored 27 points and Courtney Williams added 24 points for the Lynx, who shot 49 percent. The Lynx now head into the WNBA Finals against New York, which is just 7-18-1 ATS its past 26 home games and 1-4-1 ATS overall its past six games following a win. Minnesota is 9-2 ATS against teams with winning records and 15-7-1 ATS its past 23 games overall. The Lynx are 11-5 UNDER with one day of rest and the Liberty have gone UNDER six of eight playing with at least three days rest. Minnesota has won and covered three of the four meetings this year. Take the Lynx and the UNDER.