Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury

Phoenix opened the new season at Las Vegas scoring 80 points shooting 38.2% from the field. They return to face Vegas in Game 3 on the road and Phoenix is 83-56 UNDER the total off an upset win as an underdog. They're also 160-123 UNDER revenging a road loss to an opponent. Las Vegas has opened the season with two wins allowing an average of 81 points, the fourth-best defensively in the WNBA. The offense isn't in mid-season form yet shooting 41.7%, eighth in the 12-team league, as well as eighth from long range (31.7%). Las Vegas is 12-4 UNDER the total as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points. Take Phoenix/Las Vegas UNDER the total. 

Phoenix isn't playing any defense surrendering 100 and 94 points in the last two games. They're on a 5-0 run OVER the total while on a 10-game losing streak. The defense is ninth in the 12-team WNBA in points given up allowing 44.4% shooting from the field and 37.2% from 3-point land. Phoenix is 20-9 OVER the total after a home loss and 70-46 OVER after two or more straight defeats. Las Vegas loves to run-and-gun, tops in the league in scoring (92.6 points per game) and shooting (48.5%), plus second from long range (37.1%). Las Vegas is 44-27 OVER the total at home after a road victory and 33-13 OVER at home after three or more straight victories. Take Phoenix/Las Vegas OVER the total as a Max Play. 

Las Vegas has won two in a row following its 103-77 rout of Seattle on Saturday when A'ja Wilson poured in 30 points to lead five double-figure scorers for the Aces and the game went OVER by 9.5 points for the fourth OVER in six games for Las Vegas. Phoenix has gone OVER four games in a row, including a 100-77 loss to Washington on Tuesday as the Mystics shot 56.7 percent from the field. The OVER is 6-2 the past eight meetings and the past three have gone OVER, including the last one when the Aces won 98-72 on July 11. The OVER is 18-6 in the Aces' past 24 road games and they are 8-1 OVER versus teams with losing records. The Mercury are 4-0 OVER after a loss. Take the first half OVER as a Max Play and the game to go OVER the total as a Max Play.

Nikki Blue took over as interim coach in late June and the Phoenix Mercury have been playing with more energy and better defense since and they got their second victory under Blue, 78-72 over Los Angeles on Sunday while holding the Sparks to 37 percent shooting. Brittney Griner led the Mercury with 29 points and Diana Taurasi added 22 points for Phoenix, which shot 48 percent from the field. Now the next task for the new coach is to get some revenge against Las Vegas, which won the first meeting this season 99-79 four days before Blue was hired as head coach. The Aces showed some vulnerability losing 80-78 to Dallas on Friday before defeating Minnesota the following night. They are just 3-4 ATS their past seven games and despite their 17-2 SU record, the Aces are just 10-9 ATS. Phoenix is 10-3 ATS the past 13 meetings on the road with the Aces. Take the Mercury ATS (Max Play), and grab a half-unit on the moneyline.