Toronto at Carolina

This appears to be a huge mis-match with the 19-9-03 Maple Leafs visiting the lowly 8-19-0-3 Hurricanes. But, a deeper look reveals that Toronto has been the beneficiary of a lot of home cooking. They are 14-7 at home but just 5-5 on the road. And, the Leafs have played just twice on the road since November 20th - a stretch in which they went 10-1-1. Eight of their next nine will be on the road so look for this team to come back to earth, starting tonight. The Hurricanes play great defense, allowing just 2.3 goals per game at home this season and that gives them a puncher's chance here. Dating back to last season, Toronto has a tendency to let down vs. bad teams, going just 23-30 vs. losing teams during that time. They are 0-6 over that span on the road vs. bad offensive teams like Carolina (teams scoring under 2.5 goals per game). Take the home team here.