Toronto at Boston

Boston is allowing opponents just 1.5 goals per game at home this season. Toronto is scoring just 2.4 per game over their last five. The Leafs are giving up 3.6 per game on the season. They are just 2-8 this season coming off a home game and dating back to last season, they are 3-13 off a home game in which both teams scored 3+ goals. Boston should have some offensive success against this Leaf's defense. We think that helps push this game OVER the total and gives the Bruins a decent shot at a big win. Boston is 15-5 OVER dating back to last season after having lost two out of three games. We see a good shot at a 4-2 Boston win here.