Tampa Bay at Washington

The Capitals have exploded in several games this season, hitting the 5 goal mark or more on five occasions already this season. That bumps the total goals set for their games to 6 quite often. Despite the offensive explosions, this team has played UNDER in nine of the 15, or 60% of the time. When they play to a total of 6 or higher, that number jumps to 7-3 and 70% to the UNDER, so we are truly getting some value on the UNDER. In their final three playoffs games all posted at 6 last year, they came in UNDER those totals as well, making the mark 10-3 to the UNDER with a total of 6 or more. Going back to last season, the Lightning are 8-5 to the UNDER in their last 13 posted at 6+. Washington has served up eight UNDERs in their last 11 following a win. Tampa Bay has played four straight UNDERs vs. a team with a home winning percentage of over .600. I like the UNDER here.