This pick was released to clients on August 09, 2012 at 4:29PM ET.
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Tampa Bay at New Jersey

April 12, 2007
img7:35 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

New Jersey has a new coach and unlike last time they fired a coach toward the end of the season, we think it won't help them this year. Tampa Bay lost to Ottawa in the playoffs last season, a team that went on to the Stanley Cup Finals. They are only two seasons removed from a Championship and they know how to win in the playoffs with players like Martin St. Louis and Vincent Lecavalier (both over 100 points). They will have to show big in order to get past Brodeur. Tampa Bay is a big underdog here despite winning three of four against New Jersey in the regular season. The Devils managed just six total goals in those games. Tampa had a winning road record this season and a winning record as a road underdog of +100 to +200. New Jersey is not a team that takes advantage of poor opponent goaltenders. They are just 16-30 the past two seasons vs. goalies saving under 90% of shots including 0-5 vs. such goalies in late-season play. Tampa Bay has a good shot here and at this line, we get a ton of value.

2 units on Tampa Bay +159 (moneyline) (risk 2 to return 5.18)
Result:
LOSS
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