Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay

The last six games played between these two teams all came in under this posted total of 6.5. Yes, Pittsburgh plays in high-scoring games on the road, but Tampa Bay is the antehesis of that. Eighteen of Tampa Bay's twenty seven home games have gone UNDER as they score much less here and allow much less here than they do on the road. They are even 14-7 UNDER at home this season against weak defensive opponents (allowing 2.9+ goals per game). They simply prefer to play defense and keep the score down. The Lightning are off a loss, making this play even better as they are 8-2 UNDER at home in that situation this year.