Pittsburgh at Philadelphia

We have been on Pittsburgh a lot this postseason and they have rewarded us and their backers with a 10-1 record. This is the time we get off that train and go strong the other way. If there were a game in which a good team absolutely needs to win, this is it. The Flyers are dead in the water if they lose here. They will bring their best game of the playoffs. Pittsburgh can actually afford to lose and may let down a bit. Sure, they want to win. But will they bring the intensity necessary to counter what the Flyers will bring? We don't think so. After game two, Martin Biron said, "It's all about desperation and urgency in our game, especially in Game Three. We've played in a Game Seven before where if you lose you go home. Game Three isn't like that, but it's as close as it's going to get." If the Penguins have a vulnerability, it's on the road where they are 24-21 adn their scoring drops off by nearly one full goal per game. They are also just 7-13 this season off a win vs. a division rival. Philadelphia is also 17-7 this season after having lost two of their last three. We also like the game to go OVER. The Penguins allowed 2.8 goals per game on the road this season while the Flyers allowed 2.8 at home and scored 3.2 at home. Philly is averaging 3.4 per game in the playoffs. In post All-Star play, the Flyers are 30-17 OVER the past two seasons vs. winning teams. That includes a 13-5 OVER mark vs. teams at .600 or better and a 17-7 OVER mark vs. good goalies that save 91.5%+ of shots on goal. This season the Flyers are 24-12 OVER after having won 4+ of their last six games. We'll take the Flyers and the OVER here.