Pittsburgh at Philadelphia

So far, this has been a home-dominated series with the home team prevailing in each of the first three games. The Penguins simply have not been the same team that ran to the NHL Finals last year. One prevailing problem cropped up again in game three where they allowed six goals. The Penguins have allowed four goals or more in 21 of their last 49 games - a serious problem. When they hit the road they have now allowed four or more in 14 of their last 22 games - hardly a recipe to get back to the finals. These teams have now met three times this season to a total of 24 goals in the three games, or eight per contest and none have tallied less than six. The Flyers are now 21-6-1 to the OVER in their last 28 as a home favorite. In this series, when they meet in Philly, the OVER is 12-2-1 in the last 15, so I'll go with the OVER in this one.