Pittsburgh at New York

Pittsburgh's been on a tear of late and they have averaged 8.6 goals per game total scored over their last five. So why go UNDER here? These things can't continue forever. They won't be scoring 4+ against an Islanders team that gives up 2.4 per game at home. Over their last five, NY has allowed just 2.2 per game and scored only 2.0 per game. They have kept eight of their last nine opponents to 2 goals or less! So, if the home team dictates this game, it will be much lower scoring than the Penguins' recent games. New York is 18-9 UNDER at home this year and 4-1 UNDER in their last five. Over the past two seasons they are 21-11 UNDER here vs. winning teams and this season they are 8-2 UNDER vis teams that are outscoring their opponents by 0.3+ per game. Pittsburgh showed signs of slowing down last game when 5 total goals were scored and we see this one going UNDER too.