Pittsburgh at Detroit

The Penguins have been great in the playoffs, posting a 12-2 mark, defeating opponents by an average score of 3.6 to 1.9. Sidney Crosby leads all playoff players with 21 points. Their inexperience hasn't hurt them thus far but we think things are about to change. This is Detroit, after all. Detroit has gone 12-4 in the playoffs winning by a similar average margin of 3.4 to 1.9. Slight overall edge to Pittsburgh, right? Well, this game is being played in Detroit. At home during the playoffs the Red Wings have given up just 1.5 goals per game while scoring 3.1. This team is virtually unbeatable at home. They are in fact 21-5 the past three seasons at home vs. very good teams (those outscoring their opponents by 0.5+ goals per game). Over the past two seasons they are 30-9 at home vs. teams that can score (those averaging 2.9+ goals per game). Pittsburgh may have a shot at winning this series. As the games where on, their youth may be a benefit. But, in game one vs. a rested Detroit club, and with nerves having the biggest impact early for a young team on the big stage, we really like Detroit to take care of business. We also like the UNDER. As we stated, Detroit has allowed just 1.5 goals per game at home while Pittsburgh's defense has allowed 1.9 per game in the playoffs. The Penguins are 26-19 UNDER on the road this year including 19-11 UNDER to a total of 5.5. Detroit, when well rested, also tends to play to the UNDER as they are a perfect 7-0 UNDER the past two seasons at home when playing three or less games over a ten day span. Detroit and the UNDER here.