Philadelphia at Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh has won 12 of 13 matchups between these two teams over the past three years here at home. Their offense is clicking right now, averaging 4.4 goals per game over their last five. Philly averages under three per game on the road and given that these defenses are very similar, the Penguins have a huge edge. The Penguins have won 11 of their last 17 vs. winning opponents and 14 of their last 16 against teams that allow on average 30+ shots on goal per game! Pittsburgh's defense has been improving lately as well. They have held six of their last 12 opponents to 2 goals or less! The Flyers are 10-2 UNDER this season on the road after allowing 4+ goals in their last game. They are also 13-2 UNDER on the road vs. teams that allow 2.9+ goals per game. I like the Penguins and the UNDER here.