Ottawa at Toronto

Ottawa's defense has been horrendous this season, but Toronto isn't exactly the team to take advantage of that. The Leafs have averaged just 2.6 goals per game this season and only 2.1 per game vs. division foes. Toronto is also just 28-43 the past two seasons vs. losing teams. That includes a 6-12 mark vs. teams like Ottawa that are outscored by 0.3+ goals per game and a 2-7 mark at home vs. teams outscored by 0.7+ goals per game! Over the last five games, Ottawa has found some offense, averaging nearly 3 goals per game. The Senators are 11-3 the past two seasons revenging a home loss in which they lost by 3+ goals. And, they are 13-7 on the road the past two seasons vs. division opponents. I like Ottawa's chances here, especially at these odds.